London's mayor wants to start putting major roads into tunnels

Before and after: the A13 at Barking. Image: TfL.

Roads! Everyone loves roads, right? With their cars and their tarmac and their air pollution and that. Vroom vrooooooooooooom.

One man who has definitely decided we should be building more roads is London mayor Boris Johnson. This week he's in Boston and New York, because reasons, and has decided now is the perfect time to announce a clever plan to start burying bits of London’s trunk roads.

This is not as a crazy and idea as it might initially sound. They did it in Boston, byreplacing a six-lane elevated highway with an eight-line underground one. They're doing it in Hamburg, where the autobahn is being replaced with a park. They did it in that episode of Pigeon Street, too.

Sticking big roads in the ground has a number of advantages. It can reconnect neighbourhoods currently severed by main roads. It can make cities more attractive, if only because almost anything is more attractive than a great big bloody motorway.


And it can free up land for other uses – housing, office space, parkland, and so on. That, we suspect, is one of the reasons London's government is currently leaping on the idea. Not only does this mean more space to cope with London's population growth, but, with land values so high, the development opportunities will make any project a lot easier to pay for.

This morning City Hall said in a press release that it had examined "more than 70 locations... where the introduction of tunnels, fly-unders and decking could deliver benefits". That number looks a bit optimistic, though, and only five have been identified as "suitable for further feasibility work"; and several of these don’t sound terribly ambitious.

Nonetheless, here they are:

1) "Decking or a mini-tunnel" over the North Circular in New Southgate;

2) Turning the Hammersmith flyover on the A4 into the Hammersmith tunnel;

3) A "small fly-under" on the A316 at Chalker's Corner, where it meets the South circular near Mortlake;

4) "Decking of the A3 in Tolworth";

5) "A mini tunnel of the A13 in Barking Riverside", to connect one of London's biggest potential housing developments with something that resembles civilisation.

Here's a map, on which we've essentially highlighted the proposed developments in red crayon. (In an attempt to make them visible, our versions are almost certainly bigger than the real thing would be.)

To give a sense of the full scope of Boris' petrolhead ambitions, we've also included the three proposed East London river crossings: the Silvertown Tunnel, and Gallion's Reach and Belvedere bridges.

The really big one, though, is one Johnson has been talking up for a year: the proposal to create a whole new ringroad underground at a cost of £30bn.

What that would look like is not exactly clear. This is the version that was floating around when TfL first broached the idea last spring...

Image: TfL.

...but that doesn't seem to fit with TfL's response to a Freedom of Information request made by the blogger known as Boris Watch. That suggested the tunnel would be 70km long – roughly twice the length of the network shown in the map above. It also lists 10 junctions, including one labelled A10/A503, and another A23/A205, which strongly suggests that the loop would go as far north as Seven Sisters and as far south as Streatham Hill.

If that's accurate, then it seems likely the final tunnel would look a lot more like this. (We've labelled the junctions included in the modelling.)

The bottom line is that we don't actually know; neither, we suspect, does Transport for London.

But what is clear is that, for the first time in a generation, expanding London's road network is seriously back on the agenda – for better or worse.

 
 
 
 

What’s killing northerners?

The Angel of the North. Image: Getty.

There is a stark disparity in wealth and health between people in the north and south of England, commonly referred to as England’s “north-south divide”. The causes of this inequality are complex; it’s influenced by the environment, jobs, migration and lifestyle factors – as well as the long-term political power imbalances, which have concentrated resources and investment in the south, especially in and around London.

Life expectancy is also lower in the north, mainly because the region is more deprived. But new analysis of national mortality data highlights a shockingly large mortality gap between young adults, aged 25 to 44, living in the north and south of England. This gap first emerged in the late 1990s, and seems to have been growing ever since.

In 1995, there were 2% more deaths among northerners aged 25 to 34 than southerners (in other words, 2% “excess mortality”). But by 2015, northerners in this age group were 29% more likely to die than their southern counterparts. Likewise, in the 35 to 44 age group, there was 3% difference in mortality between northerners and southerners in 1995. But by 2015, there were 49% more deaths among northerners than southerners in this age group.

Excess mortality in the north compared with south of England by age groups, from 1965 to 2015. Follow the lines to see that people born around 1980 are the ones most affected around 2015.

While mortality increased among northerners aged 25 to 34, and plateaued among 35 to 44-year-olds, southern mortality mainly declined across both age groups. Overall, between 2014 and 2016, northerners aged 25 to 44 were 41% more likely to die than southerners in the same age group. In real terms, this means that between 2014 and 2016, 1,881 more women and 3,530 more men aged between 25 and 44 years died in the north, than in the south.

What’s killing northerners?

To understand what’s driving this mortality gap among young adults, our team of researchers looked at the causes of death from 2014 to 2016, and sorted them into eight groups: accidents, alcohol related, cardiovascular related (heart conditions, diabetes, obesity and so on), suicide, drug related, breast cancer, other cancers and other causes.

Controlling for the age and sex of the population in the north and the south, we found that it was mostly the deaths of northern men contributing to the difference in mortality – and these deaths were caused mainly by cardiovascular conditions, alcohol and drug misuse. Accidents (for men) and cancer (for women) also played important roles.

From 2014 to 2016, northerners were 47% more likely to die for cardiovascular reasons, 109% for alcohol misuse and 60% for drug misuse, across both men and women aged 25 to 44 years old. Although the national rate of death from cardiovascular reasons has dropped since 1981, the longstanding gap between north and south remains.

Death and deprivation

The gap in life expectancy between north and south is usually put down to socioeconomic deprivation. We considered further data for 2016, to find out if this held true for deaths among young people. We found that, while two thirds of the gap were explained by the fact that people lived in deprived areas, the remaining one third could be caused by some unmeasured form of deprivation, or by differences in culture, infrastructure, migration or extreme weather.

Mortality for people aged 25 to 44 years in 2016, at small area geographical level for the whole of England.

Northern men faced a higher risk of dying young than northern women – partly because overall mortality rates are higher for men than for women, pretty much at every age, but also because men tend to be more susceptible to socioeconomic pressures. Although anachronistic, the expectation to have a job and be able to sustain a family weighs more on men. Accidents, alcohol misuse, drug misuse and suicide are all strongly associated with low socioeconomic status.

Suicide risk is twice as high among the most deprived men, compared to the most affluent. Suicide risk has also been associated with unemployment, and substantial increases in suicide have been observed during periods of recession – especially among men. Further evidence tells us that unskilled men between ages 25 and 39 are between ten and 20 times more likely to die from alcohol-related causes, compared to professionals.

Alcohol underpins the steep increase in liver cirrhosis deaths in Britain from the 1990s – which is when the north-south divide in mortality between people aged 25 to 44 also started to emerge. Previous research has shown that men in this age group, who live in the most deprived areas, are five times more likely to die from alcohol-related diseases than those in the most affluent areas. For women in deprived areas, the risk is four times greater.


It’s also widely known that mortality rates for cancer are higher in more deprived areas, and people have worse survival rates in places where smoking and alcohol abuse is more prevalent. Heroin and crack cocaine addiction and deaths from drug overdoses are also strongly associated with deprivation.

The greater number of deaths from accidents in the north should be considered in the context of transport infrastructure investment, which is heavily skewed towards the south – especially London, which enjoys the lowest mortality in the country. What’s more, if reliable and affordable public transport is not available, people will drive more and expose themselves to higher risk of an accident.

Deaths for young adults in the north of England have been increasing compared to those in the south since the late 1990s, creating new health divides between England’s regions. It seems that persistent social, economic and health inequalities are responsible for a growing trend of psychological distress, despair and risk taking among young northerners. Without major changes, the extreme concentration of power, wealth and opportunity in the south will continue to damage people’s health, and worsen the north-south divide.

The Conversation

Evangelos Kontopantelis, Professor in Data Science and Health Services Research, University of Manchester

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.