West Midlands mayoral: Poll gives Labour’s Sion Simon 6 point lead over Tory Andy Street

The Birmingham skyline. Makes a change from the Bull Ring. Image: Getty.

Editor's note: 1425hrs, 20 April: I've amended this story slightly to explain the poll’s methodology in more detail, and explain why it might be questionable.

Guys, guys, guys: exciting news from the West Midlands mayoral campaign. We have a poll.

This is a bit of a surprise: I’d sort of expected we wouldn’t be getting one of those. I outlined my reasons for that here (on my Facebook page, social media fans!), but a big chunk of my reasoning could be summed up, basically, as: “Who would commission one?”

Well, the answer turns out to be Trinity Mirror, the newspaper group which owns the Birmingham Post, Birmingham Mail and Coventry Telegraph, among other titles. It surveyed 2,500 local voters, by randomly inviting visitors to its websites to answer a questionnaire and then adjusting the results based on geography and previous voting patterns. (How good a polling method this is remains to be seen.)

Anyway: here’s what it found:

  • Sion Simon, Labour – 32.8%
  • Andy Street, Conservative – 32.3%
  • Pete Durnell, UKIP – 15.7%
  • Beverley Nielsen, LibDem – 7.5%
  • James Burn, Green - 6.7%
  • Graham Stevenson, Communist - 5.1%

So: basically a tie between Simon and Street. This is pretty much what the elections expert John Curtice has been going round predicting based on history, national vote shares and so on. It’s close.

Other thoughts: UKIP coming third, with twice the votes of the LibDems, must be a shock to poor Beverley Nielsen. Also, the 5.1 per cent voting for the communist gives one pauses for thought.

But it’s a two round system: in the instantaneous second round, all candidates but the top two will be eliminated and the votes distributed by second preference.

Then it’s not a tie.

  • Sion Simon, Labour – 53%
  • Andy Street, Conservative – 47%

That’s a clear victory for Simon. In a world in which a 52/48 referendum is seen as an overwhelming mandate, that’s practically a landslide.

Some words of warning on this. Firstly, all polling requires assumptions about who will actually show up to vote. This, though, is likely to be a low-turnout election, and there’s no history to model from. It’s thus difficult to know how accurate this poll actually is, especially since it wasn't conducted by an actual pollster. If people who read Trinity Mirror newspapers have different voting patterns to those who don't, it might be junk.

Secondly, for reasons I outlined earlier, my gut instinct is that the general election campaign will work against Labour and in favour of the Tories. On balance, I think if the next fortnight sees the TV news filling with pictures of Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn, then that makes a Tory victory more likely.


That said – my gut is often wrong. Perhaps all the noise from national politics will make Midlanders more determined to vote against those wicked Tories.

We shall see. At the moment, though, the polls suggest Sion Simon is 6 points ahead. It’s his to lose.

Jonn Elledge is the editor of CityMetric. He is on Twitter as @jonnelledge and also has a Facebook page now for some reason. 

Want more of this stuff? Follow CityMetric on Twitter or Facebook

 
 
 
 

London needs the reduce its plastic bottle use. Here’s how

What a waste. Image: Getty.

A Labour member of the London Assembly on the city’s plastic problem.

The huge amount of waste created by single-use plastics is a scourge on our capital – and the main culprit is plastic water bottles which are disposed of in their tens of millions each year. Picture this: if the 480bn plastic drinking bottles sold worldwide in 2016 were placed end to end, they would extend more than halfway to the sun.

Worryingly, if urgent action isn’t taken, Euromonitor International have predicted that this figure will rise to 583bn in the next three years. In London, the issue of plastic waste is particularly acute. Londoners consume more plastic bottled water per person than anywhere else in the UK, and last year, the Thames 21 waterways group revealed that plastic bottles make up 10 per cent of all litter found in the Thames.

However, there has been some progress this month with the mayor’s announcement of an extra £6m of funding to go towards reducing plastic waste and improving green spaces. In addition, Network Rail also confirmed plans to install water refill stations in all of its ten London termini stations, including Waterloo and King’s Cross.

One of the solutions to encourage Londoners to think again – before disposing of their plastic bottles after one use – Is to install a network of water refill stations across the capital’s public spaces. This is one of the measures that I have been campaigning for as Chair of the London Assembly Environment Committee, and it was welcome to see the mayor commit to it in his draft London Plan. A portion of the additional £6m of funding that the Mayor recently announced looks to add more public refill stations on top of the 20 originally proposed.


Earlier this month, after ruling out the possibility only months ago, Network Rail performed an abrupt U-turn and announced its intention to provide places to refill water bottles. It is now time for Transport for London (TfL) to consider how they might follow suit. The costs of installing water refill stations could well be a price worth paying when we compare it with the cost of continuing to push our environment to the brink.

However, tackling the deluge of plastic waste in our capital is not just the responsibility of the mayor and transport networks. Small businesses and entertainment venues also have a very significant part to play in ditching single use plastic cups and cutlery. I will be taking a lead on this and lobbying local businesses and venues in Merton and Wandsworth, the area that I represent, to commit to a plastic free pledge.

The facts are stark and should be enough to convince any responsible business owner to take action. Some 38.5m plastic bottles are used every day in the UK. Sadly, according to campaign group Recycle Now, only over half make it to recycling plants, while every day more than 16m are dumped into landfill, burnt or leaked into the environment and oceans.

Providing public water refill stations is an integral facet of the wider strategy to tackle the burgeoning levels of waste and pollution in London. There is a collective responsibility to clean up our streets, parks and rivers – but let’s hope that the major players who can make the biggest difference act on their pledges and don’t bottle it.

Leonie Cooper is a Labour London Assembly Member for Merton & Wandsworth, and the Labour group’s spokesperson on the environment.

Still thirsty? Check out this podcast we did on cities and water shortages.