Rent controls are popular – but backing them is still a big gamble for Sadiq Khan

London mayor Sadiq Khan. Image: Getty.

Sadiq Khan has kicked off his bid to be re-elected as mayor of London, announcing that he will make rent control a central pillar of his campaign.

On the face of it, the politics are largely positive for Khan: rent control is hugely popular among all voters, and particularly renters, who make up a great and growing slice of the capital’s voters.

But it also represents a big gamble on the mayor’s part. First of all, the London mayor does not at present have the power to control rents. Khan will be running not on a promise to deliver rent control but on a promise to ask to deliver rent control.

It emphasises one of the weakest areas of Khan’s mayoralty: his failure to expand the powers of the mayoralty. In 2016, he pledged to seek further powers from central government over transport, housing, youth justice, probation, the courts, and tax raising. He has received none of them. That’s not really his fault, and it may be that had David Cameron not lost the Brexit referendum in June 2016, then a devolution-minded George Osborne might well have handed over those additional powers and the Khan record would be altogether more successful.

In the real world, however, David Cameron did lose the Brexit referendum and there is no appetite from the present Conservative Party to give Khan further powers – even in areas where there is widespread political and expert consensus that it would be a good thing for the Mayor of London to have and exercise those powers.

In addition, it means making a policy that, while popular, has been consistently found not to work. Rent control incentivises landlords to remove their properties from the private rental market and instead to use them for the tourist market on AirBNB or other listings services, and creates steeper barriers to entry for new tenants.


Rent control does create some winners among renters, but crucially only among existing renters and at the expense of those starting new tenancies. Here, the dire state of tenants’ rights in the United Kingdom and the unintended consequences of rent control could create a particularly toxic cocktail: most renters don’t stay in the same rental contract for long, and it is very easy for landlords to move tenants on if they opt to move out of the private rented sector and into the holiday lettings market.

The policy is popular now, but with more than a full year to go before the next mayoral election, there is no guarantee it will remain so. It’s a boost to Khan that his Conservative opponent, Shaun Bailey, is a weak and a gaffe-prone campaigner; but it is still not certain than a year of public debate about the rights and wrongs of rent control end in a good place for Khan.

More worrying for the Labour campaign is that Khan is selling the pass as far as the question of what the mayoral election will be about. Sian Berry, who finished third last time, will surely hope that a combination of a weak Tory candidate in Bailey, the general feeling that Khan has it in the bag, and growing discontent in the capital with the sub-par efforts to tackle climate change or air pollution by national government, make it an ideal election for the Greens to come second by emphasising their opposition to Brexit and Heathrow; while the Liberal Democrats’ Siobhan Benita will want to do the same.

And in campaigning for a power he doesn’t have, Khan has legitimised his rivals in making issues that aren’t devolved to the capital the centrepiece of their election campaigns as well.

Stephen Bush is political editor of the New Statesman.

 
 
 
 

The IPPC report on the melting ice caps makes for terrifying reading

A Greeland iceberg, 2007. Image: Getty.

Earlier this year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – the UN body responsible for communicating the science of climate breakdown – released its long-awaited Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate.

Based on almost 7,000 peer-reviewed research articles, the report is a cutting-edge crash course in how human-caused climate breakdown is changing our ice and oceans and what it means for humanity and the living planet. In a nutshell, the news isn’t good.

Cryosphere in decline

Most of us rarely come into contact with the cryosphere, but it is a critical part of our climate system. The term refers to the frozen parts of our planet – the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, the icebergs that break off and drift in the oceans, the glaciers on our high mountain ranges, our winter snow, the ice on lakes and the polar oceans, and the frozen ground in much of the Arctic landscape called permafrost.

The cryosphere is shrinking. Snow cover is reducing, glaciers and ice sheets are melting and permafrost is thawing. We’ve known this for most of my 25-year career, but the report highlights that melting is accelerating, with potentially disastrous consequences for humanity and marine and high mountain ecosystems.

At the moment, we’re on track to lose more than half of all the permafrost by the end of the century. Thousands of roads and buildings sit on this frozen soil – and their foundations are slowly transitioning to mud. Permafrost also stores almost twice the amount of carbon as is present in the atmosphere. While increased plant growth may be able to offset some of the release of carbon from newly thawed soils, much will be released to the atmosphere, significantly accelerating the pace of global heating.

Sea ice is declining rapidly, and an ice-free Arctic ocean will become a regular summer occurrence as things stand. Indigenous peoples who live in the Arctic are already having to change how they hunt and travel, and some coastal communities are already planning for relocation. Populations of seals, walruses, polar bears, whales and other mammals and sea birds who depend on the ice may crash if sea ice is regularly absent. And as water in its bright-white solid form is much more effective at reflecting heat from the sun, its rapid loss is also accelerating global heating.

Glaciers are also melting. If emissions continue on their current trajectory, smaller glaciers will shrink by more than 80 per cent by the end of the century. This retreat will place increasing strain on the hundreds of millions of people globally who rely on glaciers for water, agriculture, and power. Dangerous landslides, avalanches, rockfalls and floods will become increasingly normal in mountain areas.


Rising oceans, rising problems

All this melting ice means that sea levels are rising. While seas rose globally by around 15cm during the 20th century, they’re now rising more than twice as fast –- and this rate is accelerating.

Thanks to research from myself and others, we now better understand how Antarctica and Greenland’s ice sheets interact with the oceans. As a result, the latest report has upgraded its long-term estimates for how much sea level is expected to rise. Uncertainties still remain, but we’re headed for a rise of between 60 and 110cm by 2100.

Of course, sea level isn’t static. Intense rainfall and cyclones – themselves exacerbated by climate breakdown – can cause water to surge metres above the normal level. The IPCC’s report is very clear: these extreme storm surges we used to expect once per century will now be expected every year by mid-century. In addition to rapidly curbing emissions, we must invest millions to protect at-risk coastal and low-lying areas from flooding and loss of life.

Ocean ecosystems

Up to now, the ocean has taken up more than 90 per cent of the excess heat in the global climate system. Warming to date has already reduced the mixing between water layers and, as a consequence, has reduced the supply of oxygen and nutrients for marine life. By 2100 the ocean will take up five to seven times more heat than it has done in the past 50 years if we don’t change our emissions trajectory. Marine heatwaves are also projected to be more intense, last longer and occur 50 times more often. To top it off, the ocean is becoming more acidic as it continues to absorb a proportion of the carbon dioxide we emit.

Collectively, these pressures place marine life across the globe under unprecedented threat. Some species may move to new waters, but others less able to adapt will decline or even die out. This could cause major problems for communities that depend on local seafood. As it stands, coral reefs – beautiful ecosystems that support thousands of species – will be nearly totally wiped out by the end of the century.

Between the lines

While the document makes some striking statements, it is actually relatively conservative with its conclusions – perhaps because it had to be approved by the 195 nations that ratify the IPCC’s reports. Right now, I would expect that sea level rise and ice melt will occur faster than the report predicts. Ten years ago, I might have said the opposite. But the latest science is painting an increasingly grave picture for the future of our oceans and cryosphere – particularly if we carry on with “business as usual”.

The difference between 1.5°C and 2°C of heating is especially important for the icy poles, which warm much faster than the global average. At 1.5°C of warming, the probability of an ice-free September in the Arctic ocean is one in 100. But at 2°C, we’d expect to see this happening about one-third of the time. Rising sea levels, ocean warming and acidification, melting glaciers, and permafrost also will also happen faster – and with it, the risks to humanity and the living planet increase. It’s up to us and the leaders we choose to stem the rising tide of climate and ecological breakdown.

Mark Brandon, Professor of Polar Oceanography, The Open University.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.