“Nobody knows anything”: A brief guide to how Brexit could affect Britain’s cities

You can give up on this for a start. Image: Getty.

A consensus has rapidly emerged around the correct way to respond to Britain’s exit from the European Union: blind panic.

There’s a reason for this. It’s not that new arrangements will inevitably be a disaster (though it’s far from clear that they won’t be) – it’s simply that all bets are off. It’s not clear whether we’ll stay in the single market, or whether there’ll be a recession, or whether the United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland will even exist in a few year’s time.

Given all that, the idea that we can predict with any confidence what specific bits of public policy will look like in the near future is a bit of a nonsense. Which, for a man who writes quite a lot about housing/transport/devolution, is a bit of a problem, if I’m honest.

But we are where we are – even if we might be somewhere entirely different by this time tomorrow – so let’s survey the landscape. Here’s a brief guide to why Brexit means uncertainty for the sort of things CityMetric cares about.

Devolution

One man has been the driving force behind the Northern Powerhouse, Midlands Engine and all the other names for the revolutionary idea that maybe British cities should have some measure of control over their own destinies: chancellor George Osborne.

Except, he’s almost certainly not going to be chancellor any more come the autumn. Since he’s ruled himself out of the Tory leadership contest – presumably on the quite reasonable grounds that he would lose – Osborne will almost certainly be less powerful in the next ministry than he’s been in this one.

Without anyone pushing it – and with much of the government distracted by the biggest political event to hit this country in decades – it seems likely that the devolution agenda will come to a halt. And any city that doesn’t have a devolution deal in place now – hi, Leeds – is pretty unlikely to get one.

It’s possible that grassroots pressure from local government will keep the devolution train rolling: London’s mayor Sadiq Khan is already using referendum result to agitate for more powers to London. But it’s unclear how cities without mayors would even make that case.

Oh, and local authority funding will probably be cut because that happens every time there’s a Budget in this country, so.

On which note:


Transport

We haven’t had an emergency budget yet. Once we have a new prime minister, and a new chancellor, though, we almost certainly will.

Even if the promise of an extra £350m a week to spend on domestic priorities hadn’t been a lie – which it was – that money wouldn’t materialise until we actually leave the EU, some time in 2018 at the earliest. In the mean time, economic turmoil means that tax revenues are likely to fall, and extra austerity is the order of the day.

Now personally, I’m quite a fan of Keynsianism: I reckon that making some serious infrastructure investments could be just the counter-cyclical action we need to strengthen the British economy over the next few years. Ministers, however, rarely ask for my views, and they’re distinctly unfashionable in a Westminster more concerned about the deficit.

So don’t be surprised if new grand-projets are in short supply for a while. Indeed, there’s no guarantee that those already approved will go ahead. The new line between Manchester and Leeds (£20bn), London’s Crossrail 2 (£30bn), High Speed 2 (£55bn) – any or all of them could be juicy targets for a new chancellor looking for savings.

Housing

Trying to work out what Brexit will do for housing policy is like trying to work out what your lunch today will do for how you feel tomorrow. There’s a link, but good luck trying to find it.

Here’s what we can say for certain. The referendum has hit the share price of Britain’s house buildings very, very hard. See if you can spot the day of the vote on this chart of Taylor Wimpey’s share price:

Image: Wolfram Alpha.

Explaining small movements in share prices is a mug’s game, but that is not a small movement – it’s about 30 per cent – nor is it an isolated case. The consensus is that Brexit will mean a fall in house prices. That in turn will mean the housebuilders build less, which will make it harder to deal with the fact we don’t have enough homes.

Then again, one big factor in any fall in house prices will be a rise in interest rates. Such a rise may not happen – indeed, there’s also been some talk of a fall in interest rates, effectively to negative levels, so who knows.

Even if house prices do fall, it’s unlikely to make things easier for any first-time-buyer who isn’t sat on a pile of cash, because mortgages are probably going to get more expensive: you just won’t be able to afford a cheaper house than you couldn’t afford before.  As for renters, if landlords are feeling poorer – which they will be – they’ll probably at least try to increase rents. (Whether the market will bear this is another question.)

Then again, if Brexit really does mean a fall in immigration – or even just making it very clear to existing European residents that they’re no longer welcome – Britain’s population increase could slow, or even go into reverse. In 10 years time, it’s quite possible we’ll be talking about the brain drain and half empty cities once again – in which case, housing would be cheaper, but this may not be much comfort.

To sum up: nobody knows anything. But unless you’re a first-time-buyer with £200k in the bank, it’s difficult to see this as good news.

 

There’s more – there’s so much more. The EU directs a small fortune towards regional cultural and regeneration projects - those are all gone, and it’s hard to see anything replacing them. Universities are fretting about lost funding, too, and since they make a big economic contribution to so many British cities, that’s bad for those cities, too.

This week, hilariously, London is hosting the Business & Climate Summit, where leaders from around the globe are meant to be discussing how to implement April’s Paris Agreement on reducing carbon emissions. Climate secretary Amber Rudd says the UK remains committed – but since we’re due a new government, and since abandoning international agreements is the order of the day, it’s difficult to feel too confident.

Oh, yeah, and foreign direct investment will be frozen, at best, and a load of multinationals may or may not leave the country.

On the upside, in the immediate future, Brexit is extremely unlikely to negatively affect the tube map.

Small mercies, eh?

Jonn Elledge is the editor of CityMetric. He is on Twitter, far too much, as @jonnelledge.

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This election is our chance to treat housing as a right – but only if we listen to tenants

The Churchill Gardens Estate, Westminster, London. Image: Getty.

“You’re joking, not another one... there’s too much politics going on at the moment..!”

Brenda of Bristol’s televised comments in 2017, when told that another election was to take place, could just as well have been uttered when MPs voted to call a general election for 12 December this year. 

Almost immediately the politicking began. “A chance to transform our country”. “An opportunity to stop Brexit/get Brexit done”. ‘We can end austerity and inequality.” “A new revitalised parliament.” “Another referendum.”

Yet dig behind the language of electioneering and, for the first time that I can recall, there is mention of solving the housing crisis by all the major parties. I can welcome another election, if the result is a determination to build enough homes to meet everyone’s needs and everyone’s pocket.

That will require those who come to power to recognise that our housing system has never been fit for purpose. It has never matched the needs of the nation. It is not an accident that homelessness is increasing; not an accident that families are living in overcrowded accommodation or temporary accommodation, sometimes for years; not an accident that rents are going up and the opportunities to buy property are going down. It is not an accident that social housing stock continues to be sold off. These are the direct result of policy decisions by successive governments.

So with all the major parties stating their good intentions to build more homes, how do we ensure their determination results in enough homes of quality where people want to live, work and play? By insisting that current and prospective tenants are involved in the planning and decision making process from the start.

“Involved” is the key word. When we build new homes and alter the environment we must engage with the local community and prospective tenants. It is their homes and their communities we are impacting – they need to be involved in shaping their lived space. That means involvement before the bull-dozer moves in; involvement at thinking and solution finding stages, and with architects and contractors. It is not enough to ask tenants and community members for their views on plans and proposals which have already been agreed by the board or the development committee of some distant housing provider.


As more homes for social and affordable rent become a reality, we need tenants to be partners at the table deciding on where, how and why they should be built there, from that material, and with those facilities. We need them to have an effective voice in decision making. This means working together with tenants and community members to create good quality homes in inclusive and imaginatively designed environments.

I am a tenant of Phoenix Community Housing, a social housing provider. I am also the current Chair and one of six residents on the board of twelve. Phoenix is resident led with tenants embedded throughout the organisation as active members of committees and onto policy writing and scrutiny.

Tenants are part of the decision making process as we build to meet the needs of the community. Our recently completed award-winning extra care scheme has helped older people downsize and released larger under-occupied properties for families.

By being resident led, we can be community driven. Our venture into building is small scale at the moment, but we are building quality homes that residents want and are appropriate to their needs. Our newest development is being built to Passivhaus standard, meaning they are not only more affordable but they are sustainable for future generations.

There are a few resident led organisations throughout the country. We don’t have all the answers to the housing situation, nor do we get everything right first time. We do know how to listen, learn and act.

The shocking events after the last election, when disaster came to Grenfell Tower, should remind us that tenants have the knowledge and ability to work with housing providers for the benefit of all in the community – if we listen to them and involve them and act on their input.

This election is an opportunity for those of us who see appropriate housing as a right; housing as a lived space in which to thrive and build community; housing as home not commodity – to hold our MPs to account and challenge them to outline their proposals and guarantee good quality housing, not only for the most vulnerable but for people generally, and with tenants fully involved from the start.

Anne McGurk is a tenant and chair of Phoenix Community Housing, London’s only major resident-led housing association.