How could a Labour government de-financialise Britain’s housing market?

Some Labour leaders look at some houses. Image: Getty.

To end our crippling housing crisis we first need to dispel the myths about its causes. Housing costs haven’t soared simply because there “aren’t enough homes to go around”: this narrative is popular with anti-migrant campaigners and landowners/developers seeking to tear up planning red tape, but it is not supported by the data. In fact, the number of dwellings in the UK has grown faster than the number of households throughout the decades of house price inflation.  

House price booms and busts in the UK are explained far better by studying drivers of housing demand, than by looking for shortages of supply relative to housing need. Specifically, demand has been inflated by institutional changes – property tax breaks, Buy To Let mortgages, repression of tenants rights, and so on – that have encouraged the treatment of land and homes as financial assets.  

The result is that ordinary buyers have increasingly found themselves in a bidding war with landlords, speculators, second home owners, even international money launderers. Importantly, this bidding war has been fuelled by seismic deregulation of the UK mortgage market, which increased the supply of easy mortgage credit, and created a dangerous feedback loop between the finance and house prices.

One aim of our Land For The Many report, commissioned by the Labour party, and published today, is to explain how such inflationary forces can be brought under control.

We recommend major tax reforms to discourage the use of land and homes as financial assets and share out some of the eye watering unearned windfall gains from house price inflation.

We recommend measures to reduce to the exploitation and insecurity in the private rented sector – reforms that make sense on their own terms, but have the added benefit of dampening demand from Buy-To-Let landlords.

We recommend interventions by the Bank of England to reduce risky and inflationary forms of mortgage lending. We propose planning restrictions on holiday homes. And we recommend a total overhaul of the housing development model, so that builders compete on quality rather than on their ability to navigate the speculative land market. 

What stands in the way of such reforms is not just the power of vested interests, but a fear among policy makers that such reforms will trigger a house price crash. This is not an unreasonable concern: debt-and speculation-fuelled house price rises are always going to be vulnerable to reversal.

Any reform that makes housing less attractive as a financial asset could result in a sudden withdrawal of demand from investors, and potentially prompt some to try and sell. The resulting price drop could in turn make mortgage lenders more cautious about lending at high loan to value ratios, which would suck even more purchasing power out of the market, putting further downward pressure on prices. 

Although many aspiring homeowners would welcome a reduction in house prices, there are political and macroeconomic risks associated with falling prices that must be avoided. In particular, a house price crash would be punishing for households who bought for the first time at the height of the boom, and could push some into negative equity, making it impossible to move or re-mortgage.


On the other hand, a more timid approach to housing reform will leave a whole generation locked out of homeownership: it will take decades to regain a “normal” house price-to-income ratio if we merely slow the rate of house price inflation and wait for wages to catch up. 

Is there a way to reconcile the apparently conflicting interests of homeowners and non-home owners? In today’s report for Labour we float one possible way out of this conundrum. The proposal is to set up a new body – the Common Ground Trust – with three functions.

The first is to support people locked out of home ownership, who would approach the Trust when they have found a house they wanted to buy and ask the Trust to purchase the land underneath the house. The buyers would cover the upfront costs of the bricks and mortar only (which on average account for just 30 per cent of the price of a property), and then pay a land rent to the Trust. This would enable many more people with small deposits to enjoy a form of home ownership, and with it greater security and control over their living space, without taking on imprudent levels of mortgage debt. 

The second function is to facilitate the gradual transfer of land into common ownership, so that the associated unearned land rents can be pooled and distributed according to need, rather than captured by private landowners and banks at society’s expense.

The third function is to stabilise house and land values. If prices are falling too quickly, the Trust would bid slightly above market prices for the land, to slow the price decline. In other words, the Trust would be a lever for supporting stable and sustainable forms of demand in the housing market, to offset the withdrawal of volatile and socially damaging forms of demand. (Importantly, if prices were rising, the Trust would cease to bid at all, until government had brought the inflationary forces under control.)

The Common Ground Trust is an idea in early stages of development, but we believe it is a useful provocation. If we want bold measures to improve the lives of renters, tax property more fairly and avoid a violent house price crash, then we must develop a plan for deflating the housing bubble in slow motion. The Common Ground Trust is a solid starting point for that discussion.  

Beth Stratford is a PhD student, a fellow at the New Economics Foundation, a co-founder of the London Renters Union, and one of the authors of the “Land for the Many” report. You can read the whole thing here.

 
 
 
 

The IPPC report on the melting ice caps makes for terrifying reading

A Greeland iceberg, 2007. Image: Getty.

Earlier this year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – the UN body responsible for communicating the science of climate breakdown – released its long-awaited Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate.

Based on almost 7,000 peer-reviewed research articles, the report is a cutting-edge crash course in how human-caused climate breakdown is changing our ice and oceans and what it means for humanity and the living planet. In a nutshell, the news isn’t good.

Cryosphere in decline

Most of us rarely come into contact with the cryosphere, but it is a critical part of our climate system. The term refers to the frozen parts of our planet – the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, the icebergs that break off and drift in the oceans, the glaciers on our high mountain ranges, our winter snow, the ice on lakes and the polar oceans, and the frozen ground in much of the Arctic landscape called permafrost.

The cryosphere is shrinking. Snow cover is reducing, glaciers and ice sheets are melting and permafrost is thawing. We’ve known this for most of my 25-year career, but the report highlights that melting is accelerating, with potentially disastrous consequences for humanity and marine and high mountain ecosystems.

At the moment, we’re on track to lose more than half of all the permafrost by the end of the century. Thousands of roads and buildings sit on this frozen soil – and their foundations are slowly transitioning to mud. Permafrost also stores almost twice the amount of carbon as is present in the atmosphere. While increased plant growth may be able to offset some of the release of carbon from newly thawed soils, much will be released to the atmosphere, significantly accelerating the pace of global heating.

Sea ice is declining rapidly, and an ice-free Arctic ocean will become a regular summer occurrence as things stand. Indigenous peoples who live in the Arctic are already having to change how they hunt and travel, and some coastal communities are already planning for relocation. Populations of seals, walruses, polar bears, whales and other mammals and sea birds who depend on the ice may crash if sea ice is regularly absent. And as water in its bright-white solid form is much more effective at reflecting heat from the sun, its rapid loss is also accelerating global heating.

Glaciers are also melting. If emissions continue on their current trajectory, smaller glaciers will shrink by more than 80 per cent by the end of the century. This retreat will place increasing strain on the hundreds of millions of people globally who rely on glaciers for water, agriculture, and power. Dangerous landslides, avalanches, rockfalls and floods will become increasingly normal in mountain areas.


Rising oceans, rising problems

All this melting ice means that sea levels are rising. While seas rose globally by around 15cm during the 20th century, they’re now rising more than twice as fast –- and this rate is accelerating.

Thanks to research from myself and others, we now better understand how Antarctica and Greenland’s ice sheets interact with the oceans. As a result, the latest report has upgraded its long-term estimates for how much sea level is expected to rise. Uncertainties still remain, but we’re headed for a rise of between 60 and 110cm by 2100.

Of course, sea level isn’t static. Intense rainfall and cyclones – themselves exacerbated by climate breakdown – can cause water to surge metres above the normal level. The IPCC’s report is very clear: these extreme storm surges we used to expect once per century will now be expected every year by mid-century. In addition to rapidly curbing emissions, we must invest millions to protect at-risk coastal and low-lying areas from flooding and loss of life.

Ocean ecosystems

Up to now, the ocean has taken up more than 90 per cent of the excess heat in the global climate system. Warming to date has already reduced the mixing between water layers and, as a consequence, has reduced the supply of oxygen and nutrients for marine life. By 2100 the ocean will take up five to seven times more heat than it has done in the past 50 years if we don’t change our emissions trajectory. Marine heatwaves are also projected to be more intense, last longer and occur 50 times more often. To top it off, the ocean is becoming more acidic as it continues to absorb a proportion of the carbon dioxide we emit.

Collectively, these pressures place marine life across the globe under unprecedented threat. Some species may move to new waters, but others less able to adapt will decline or even die out. This could cause major problems for communities that depend on local seafood. As it stands, coral reefs – beautiful ecosystems that support thousands of species – will be nearly totally wiped out by the end of the century.

Between the lines

While the document makes some striking statements, it is actually relatively conservative with its conclusions – perhaps because it had to be approved by the 195 nations that ratify the IPCC’s reports. Right now, I would expect that sea level rise and ice melt will occur faster than the report predicts. Ten years ago, I might have said the opposite. But the latest science is painting an increasingly grave picture for the future of our oceans and cryosphere – particularly if we carry on with “business as usual”.

The difference between 1.5°C and 2°C of heating is especially important for the icy poles, which warm much faster than the global average. At 1.5°C of warming, the probability of an ice-free September in the Arctic ocean is one in 100. But at 2°C, we’d expect to see this happening about one-third of the time. Rising sea levels, ocean warming and acidification, melting glaciers, and permafrost also will also happen faster – and with it, the risks to humanity and the living planet increase. It’s up to us and the leaders we choose to stem the rising tide of climate and ecological breakdown.

Mark Brandon, Professor of Polar Oceanography, The Open University.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.