Good transport links will be the foundation of new homes for London

Not enough of these. Image: Oli Scarff/Getty.

The latest in the Future of London series, presented by Transport for London.

This time: how can we solve the capital’s housing crisis?

Ask a random group of Londoners what is the biggest challenge for the city and most will agre: housing. People are increasingly being priced out of inner London, and “generation rent” are wondering if and when they will ever be able to get on the property ladder. Recently, we’ve even heard stories of young Londoners relocating to Berlin, where property is cheaper and globally mobile jobs are available.

The problem is being compounded by population growth. London now has 8.6m residents – more than at any time in its history – and is predicted to reach 10m by 2030. That gives the city a monumental challenge: building the homes to house 1.4m more inhabitants when there’s already a housing crisis.


The city has a housing target to build 49,000 homes a year. Meeting that target means building 4,000 homes a month, or one home every 10 minutes.

The next mayor, elected in May 2016, will have to work round the clock to solve the housing crisis. If they don’t, it could cost the economy £35bn over the next 10 years.

The next mayor isn’t going to put a hard hat on, get their shovel out and build the houses themselves, but they will have a good toolbox with which to work. In the UK, London’s mayor has unmatched powers over strategic planning and, crucially, an integrated transport network, to unlock land for development. If combined with a clear vision and leadership from City Hall and supported by national government, London can deliver the homes Londoners need.

One of the pressing questions is deciding where the houses should be built. Mayoral hopefuls are looking at options including building outside the city’s boundaries, capitalising on opportunity areas, densifying parts of inner London and developing town centres in outer London. They are also looking at using parts of public sector-owned land to create homes.

Connecting homes with jobs

For each strategy considered, the next mayor will also need to look at effective transport links, which are fundamental to unlocking housing potential and to London’s economy.

The most productive workers in the country work in central London. The firms they are employed by need to recruit from a wide pool of candidates, with many commuting from across the South East to work there. Seventy-nine per cent of workers in central London travel into work by train, and they travel further than commuters across the rest of Britain.

But the jobs they do are often globally mobile, making the imperative of providing affordable homes even more pressing. Seventy-three per cent of London businesses think that the current housing shortage poses a risk to the city’s economic future. Firms looking for global headquarters will consider risks like that when they look at locating in London.

Economic activity unlocked by Crossrail 2 would deliver a sum more than sufficient to pay half of the scheme’s costs

Meanwhile, firms locating in outer London will also expect their employees and customers to be able to access them easily. This requires an effective road network and connections for people cycling, walking and using local bus services.

Good transport links are therefore vital to unlocking the developments which are needed to address the housing shortage and maintain London’s competitiveness. Crucially, the housing they unlock can help to fund the transport schemes themselves.

Under the capital’s control

The planned extension of the Northern line, running from Kennington to Battersea, is being funded in part by the developers building on the land around it. The area is expected to deliver 16,000 new homes for London. A further 24,000 homes could be built around Old Oak Common, an area set to benefit from improved links on the London Overground and High Speed 2 lines, while new bus and cross-river rail links could unlock 11,000 new homes at Barking Riverside.

Another scheme that could be part-financed by Londoners is Crossrail 2, with the capital funding more than half of the cost of the scheme. Economic activity unlocked by Crossrail 2 would deliver billions of pounds of net additional tax receipts, a sum more than sufficient to pay half of the scheme’s costs. It could support 200,000 new homes across London and the South East, deliver transport and regeneration benefits, and support around 60,000 jobs across the UK during construction.


With the equivalent of two full Tube trains of people being added to London’s population every week, the city cannot afford to let Crossrail 2 sit on the drawing board. If Crossrail 2 is given the go ahead, work could start by 2020 and be finished by 2030. 

London’s next mayor will have the powers to unlock new housing, and will undoubtedly have a strong mandate from voters to do so. By integrating new developments with the existing transport network, improving links and ensuring that the right financing for projects is in place, the next mayor can deliver thousands of new homes.

But their capacity to push forward and finance schemes like Crossrail 2, which could transform housing supply across the city, still lags behind competing cities like Berlin.

To catch up, giving the mayor more powers to plan for the long-term and secure funding, could transform the city – and have a dramatic effect on whether Londoners will face the same challenges in years to come. 

The future of London series is supported by Transport for London, and commissioned by CityMetric. You can see the other articles at the following links:

"What will the capital look like in 20 years time?" The powers the capital needs to thrive

"Data helps us provide better transport": an interview with Shashi Verma, TfL's Director of Customer Experience, about big data and new methods of payment

 
 
 
 

What can other cities learn about water shortages from Cape Town’s narrow escape from ‘Day Zero’?

Cape town. Image: Pixabay/creative commons.

Cape Town was set to run dry on 12 April, leaving its 3.7m residents without tap water.

“Day Zero” was narrowly averted through drastic cuts in municipal water consumption and last-minute transfers from the agricultural sector. But the process was painful and inequitable, spurring much controversy.

The city managed to stave off “Day Zero,” but does that mean Cape Town’s water system is resilient?

We think not.

This may well foreshadow trouble beyond Cape Town. Cities across the Northern Hemisphere, including in Canada, are well into another summer season that has already brought record-setting heat, drought and flooding from increased run-off.

Water crises are not just about scarcity

Water scarcity crises are most often a result of mismanagement rather than of absolute declines in physical water supplies.

In Cape Town, lower than average rainfall tipped the scales towards a “crisis,” but the situation was worsened by slow and inadequate governance responses. Setting aside debates around whose responsibility it was to act and when, the bigger issue, in our view, was the persistence of outdated ways of thinking about “uncertainty” in the water system.

As the drought worsened in 2016, the City of Cape Town’s water managers remained confident in the system’s ability to withstand the drought. High-level engineers and managers viewed Cape Town’s water system as uniquely positioned to handle severe drought in part because of the vaunted success of their ongoing Water Demand Management strategies.

They weren’t entirely mistaken — demand management has cut overall daily consumption by 50 per cent since 2016. So what went wrong?


Limits to demand management

First, Cape Town’s approach to water management was not well-equipped to deal with growing uncertainty in rainfall patterns — a key challenge facing cities worldwide. Researchers at the University of Cape Town argued recently that the conventional models long used to forecast supply and demand underestimated the probability of failure in the water system.

Second, Cape Town’s water system neared disaster in part because demand management seemed to have reached its limits. Starting late last year, the city imposed a limit on water consumption of 87 litres per person per day. That ceiling thereafter shrunk to 50 litres per person per day.

Despite these efforts, Cape Town consistently failed to cut demand below the 500m-litre-per-day citywide target needed to ensure that the system would function into the next rainy season.

The mayor accused the city’s residents of wasting water, but her reprimanding rhetoric should not be seen as a sign that the citizens were non-compliant. The continuously shrinking water targets were an untenable long-term management strategy.

Buffers are key to water resilience

In the end, “Day Zero” was avoided primarily by relying on unexpected buffers, including temporary agricultural transfers and the private installation of small-scale, residential grey-water systems and boreholes in the city’s wealthier neighbourhoods. The former increased water supply and the latter lowered demand from the municipal system. These buffers are unlikely to be available next year, however, as the water allocations for the agricultural sector will not be renewed and there is uncertainty in the long-term sustainability of groundwater withdrawals.

For more than a decade, Cape Town has levelled demand, reduced leaks and implemented pressure management and water restrictions. This made Cape Town’s water system highly efficient and therefore less resilient because there were fewer reserves to draw from in times of unusual scarcity.

The UN Water 2015 report found that most cities are not very resilient to water risks. As water managers continue to wait for climate change models to become more certain or more specific, they defer action, paralysing decision-makers.

If we really want our cities to be water-resilient, we must collectively change long-held ideas about water supply and demand. This will require technological and institutional innovation, as well as behavioural change, to create new and more flexible buffers — for example, through water recycling, green infrastructure and other novel measures.

Although Cape Town avoided disaster this year, that does not make it water-resilient. Despite the arrival of the rainy season, Cape Town is still likely to face Day Zero at some point in the future.

The ConversationThere’s a good chance that the city is not alone.

Lucy Rodina, PhD Candidate, University of British Columbia and Kieran M. FindlaterUniversity of British Columbia.

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.