Could the UK really lead the world in electric vehicles?

Vroom, vroom. Image: Getty.

Amidst a gloomy series of announcements pointing to car manufacturers pulling out of the UK, there are still some signs that the future could be bright for the UK’s automotive industry.

Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) has announced it will invest hundreds of millions of pounds in electric vehicle (EV) production at its Castle Bromwich plant in the Midlands, helping to secure 2,700 jobs. The previous government had been eager to show its support, handing a £500m loan guarantee to JLR, announcing it will make charging points mandatory in new homes and cutting company car tax for EVs from 2020. In his first address to Parliament as new prime minister, Boris Johnson emphasised his vision for the UK as “the home of electric vehicles”.

But how realistic is this grand ambition? The UK still only attracts a small fraction of the new global investment in electric car manufacturing. China, Germany and the US are getting the lion’s share, with car makers’ planned investments in these countries reaching a total of over $240bn. The domestic EV market lags behind other EU countries. And, while Johnson also claims that the UK is “leading the world in battery technology”, there are no plans for large scale domestic battery manufacturing facilities, with production capacity in Europe instead expected to reach 130 GWh by 2025.

Unless this changes, the global auto industry will continue to invest elsewhere and the UK will miss its chance to claim a major stake in this industry – not to mention the benefits of cleaner air and real progress in cutting carbon from the largest emitting sector in the UK.

Government action in the following three areas could change this picture, however.

First, manufacturers need more certainty about the future market before they will invest. While Brexit will inevitably play a role, upping the domestic demand by bringing forward the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles to 2030, and providing incentives for corporate fleets and private individuals to go electric, including by expanding charging infrastructure, would go a long way to strengthening the home market.

In the uncertainty of the post-Brexit world, it could be a great trade proposition too. Demand for electric vehicles in the EU could reach 12 million vehicles by 2030, which means the UK could capitalise on the growing European market for its car exports and help address the UK’s automotive trade deficit at the same time.


Second, manufacturing electric vehicle batteries requires critical raw materials, like cobalt. The considerable environmental and human costs of mining these materials could lead to supply disruptions, potentially creating barriers to the industry’s growth.

Instead, a system for battery reuse and recycling would mean the UK could provide a ready source to meet half of its cobalt demand in 2035 from domestically used batteries. For this to happen, the government needs to put policies in place that encourage domestic battery manufacturing and reprocessing, including revising the producer responsibility system for EV batteries to improve design, reuse and recycling.

Third, firms investing in electric vehicles could make profits in associated services, and particularly those enabled by new digital technology. For example, electric vehicles could be an infrastructure asset to support the energy system: batteries from idle cars can be deployed for balancing on local energy networks, limiting the need for network reinforcement and enabling further integration of renewables in the power system. This would enable UK firms to access new revenue streams beyond car sales, strengthening their profitability, and maximise the benefits of the transition to electric vehicles for UK citizens.

It is estimated that smart charging and vehicle to grid technology (which allows cars to provide power from the battery back into the grid), could save the energy system in Great Britain up to £270m per year by 2030 in avoided distribution network upgrades and reduced peak energy demand. To realise these opportunities, Ofgem should ensure the ongoing network charging and energy retail market reviews enable better use of EV batteries as part of a smart energy system.

China, Norway and EU countries, such as the Netherlands, have already set high ambitions for zero emissions vehicles. If Boris Johnson is serious about making the UK the “home of electric vehicles”, “powered by British-made battery technology”, his new government needs to act quickly, before it misses the chance.

Caterina Brandmayr is senior policy analyst at the Green Alliance.

 
 
 
 

The IPPC report on the melting ice caps makes for terrifying reading

A Greeland iceberg, 2007. Image: Getty.

Earlier this year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – the UN body responsible for communicating the science of climate breakdown – released its long-awaited Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate.

Based on almost 7,000 peer-reviewed research articles, the report is a cutting-edge crash course in how human-caused climate breakdown is changing our ice and oceans and what it means for humanity and the living planet. In a nutshell, the news isn’t good.

Cryosphere in decline

Most of us rarely come into contact with the cryosphere, but it is a critical part of our climate system. The term refers to the frozen parts of our planet – the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, the icebergs that break off and drift in the oceans, the glaciers on our high mountain ranges, our winter snow, the ice on lakes and the polar oceans, and the frozen ground in much of the Arctic landscape called permafrost.

The cryosphere is shrinking. Snow cover is reducing, glaciers and ice sheets are melting and permafrost is thawing. We’ve known this for most of my 25-year career, but the report highlights that melting is accelerating, with potentially disastrous consequences for humanity and marine and high mountain ecosystems.

At the moment, we’re on track to lose more than half of all the permafrost by the end of the century. Thousands of roads and buildings sit on this frozen soil – and their foundations are slowly transitioning to mud. Permafrost also stores almost twice the amount of carbon as is present in the atmosphere. While increased plant growth may be able to offset some of the release of carbon from newly thawed soils, much will be released to the atmosphere, significantly accelerating the pace of global heating.

Sea ice is declining rapidly, and an ice-free Arctic ocean will become a regular summer occurrence as things stand. Indigenous peoples who live in the Arctic are already having to change how they hunt and travel, and some coastal communities are already planning for relocation. Populations of seals, walruses, polar bears, whales and other mammals and sea birds who depend on the ice may crash if sea ice is regularly absent. And as water in its bright-white solid form is much more effective at reflecting heat from the sun, its rapid loss is also accelerating global heating.

Glaciers are also melting. If emissions continue on their current trajectory, smaller glaciers will shrink by more than 80 per cent by the end of the century. This retreat will place increasing strain on the hundreds of millions of people globally who rely on glaciers for water, agriculture, and power. Dangerous landslides, avalanches, rockfalls and floods will become increasingly normal in mountain areas.


Rising oceans, rising problems

All this melting ice means that sea levels are rising. While seas rose globally by around 15cm during the 20th century, they’re now rising more than twice as fast –- and this rate is accelerating.

Thanks to research from myself and others, we now better understand how Antarctica and Greenland’s ice sheets interact with the oceans. As a result, the latest report has upgraded its long-term estimates for how much sea level is expected to rise. Uncertainties still remain, but we’re headed for a rise of between 60 and 110cm by 2100.

Of course, sea level isn’t static. Intense rainfall and cyclones – themselves exacerbated by climate breakdown – can cause water to surge metres above the normal level. The IPCC’s report is very clear: these extreme storm surges we used to expect once per century will now be expected every year by mid-century. In addition to rapidly curbing emissions, we must invest millions to protect at-risk coastal and low-lying areas from flooding and loss of life.

Ocean ecosystems

Up to now, the ocean has taken up more than 90 per cent of the excess heat in the global climate system. Warming to date has already reduced the mixing between water layers and, as a consequence, has reduced the supply of oxygen and nutrients for marine life. By 2100 the ocean will take up five to seven times more heat than it has done in the past 50 years if we don’t change our emissions trajectory. Marine heatwaves are also projected to be more intense, last longer and occur 50 times more often. To top it off, the ocean is becoming more acidic as it continues to absorb a proportion of the carbon dioxide we emit.

Collectively, these pressures place marine life across the globe under unprecedented threat. Some species may move to new waters, but others less able to adapt will decline or even die out. This could cause major problems for communities that depend on local seafood. As it stands, coral reefs – beautiful ecosystems that support thousands of species – will be nearly totally wiped out by the end of the century.

Between the lines

While the document makes some striking statements, it is actually relatively conservative with its conclusions – perhaps because it had to be approved by the 195 nations that ratify the IPCC’s reports. Right now, I would expect that sea level rise and ice melt will occur faster than the report predicts. Ten years ago, I might have said the opposite. But the latest science is painting an increasingly grave picture for the future of our oceans and cryosphere – particularly if we carry on with “business as usual”.

The difference between 1.5°C and 2°C of heating is especially important for the icy poles, which warm much faster than the global average. At 1.5°C of warming, the probability of an ice-free September in the Arctic ocean is one in 100. But at 2°C, we’d expect to see this happening about one-third of the time. Rising sea levels, ocean warming and acidification, melting glaciers, and permafrost also will also happen faster – and with it, the risks to humanity and the living planet increase. It’s up to us and the leaders we choose to stem the rising tide of climate and ecological breakdown.

Mark Brandon, Professor of Polar Oceanography, The Open University.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.