The ‘Beast from the East’ and the freakishly warm Arctic temperatures are no coincidence

Frozen: the Kennet & Avon canal, Bath. Image: Getty.

During the past few weeks, bitterly cold weather has engulfed the UK and most of Northern Europe. At the same time, temperatures in the high Arctic have been 10 to 20°C above normal – although still generally below freezing.

The co-occurence of these two opposite extremes is no random coincidence. A quick climate rewind reveals how an unusual disturbance in the tropics more than a month ago sent out shock-waves thousands of kilometres in all directions, causing extreme weather events – not only in Europe and the Arctic, but in the southern hemisphere too.

The outbreak of cold weather across the UK was publicly forecast at least two weeks in advance. In early February, meteorologists noticed a large-scale weather event developing 30km high in the Arctic stratosphere, whose effects on our less lofty weather systems are well understood.

The strong westerly winds, known as the Polar Vortex, that normally circle the Arctic at this altitude had begun to weaken and change direction. Extremely cold arctic air – usually entrapped by this 360° barrier – was able to spill out to lower latitudes, flooding across Siberia.

Meteorologists refer to this type of event as a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) because the air in the stratosphere above the North Pole appears to warm rapidly. In fact, the cold air isn’t itself warming up so much as flooding south and being replaced by warmer air from further south.

Current air temperatures in the Arctic are much higher than recent historical averages. Image: Zachary Labe.

Changes to wind directions and temperatures 30km above the ground initially went unnoticed to those on the ground – both in Europe and in the Arctic. But over a period of several weeks, the influence of this weather event moved gradually downwards through the lower region of the atmosphere, eventually changing weather patterns near the surface.

One such change was the development of high pressure across Scandinavia, which generated easterly winds across the whole of Northern Europe, pulling cold air from Siberia directly over the UK. Out over the Atlantic Ocean the same area of high pressure resulted in southerly winds allowing warm air from the Atlantic to move northwards into the Arctic basin. Research shows that these weather shifts tend to be fairly persistent once they do occur – hence the unusual length of the cold spell we’re experiencing, and the warmth in the Arctic.

But what caused the stratospheric Arctic warming event to happen in the first place? For this we need to look thousands of kilometres away to the atmosphere above the tropical West Pacific Ocean. In late January, a vast area of thunderstorms, as large and strong as have ever been recorded, were disturbing the atmosphere across this region. The effect of these storms was equivalent to the dropping of a large boulder into a pond – they caused waves of alternating high and low pressure to spread through the atmosphere, particularly into the northern hemisphere. It was these waves bumping into the vortex of winds around the North Pole that caused the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event in early February.

The very same area of thunderstorms across the tropical Pacific acted as the birthplace for the less-reported Cyclone Gita, which tracked through the South Pacific, causing damage in Tonga and Samoa and even leading to unseasonably stormy weather across New Zealand at the end of their summer.


The near simultaneous occurrence of all of these extreme weather events is a perfect meteorological illustration of the butterfly effect. While we usually talk about weather in local and regional terms, the atmosphere is one continuous fluid expanse. Disturbances in one region are bound to have consequences to the weather in other parts of the world – and when they are severe the shock-waves can be immense.

Many have linked the severity of these events with climate change. But, particularly for this event, its important for us meteorologists to exercise caution. The occurrence of this particular stratospheric warming event is not itself a consequence of climate change, as one extreme weather event on its own does not tell us anything about long-term trends in the Earth’s climate.

What’s important is to look at how often these events occur – and how severe they are when they do. However, the series of events that lead to cold weather over Europe are complex and have only been well understood for the past 20 years or so. Without a few more decades of data, it is difficult to say whether either the stratospheric warming or the intense tropical storms are part of a pattern that falls outside of what we would normally expect – though limited research does already suggest that Stratospheric Sudden Warming events are becoming more frequent.

The ConversationFor other extreme weather events, the story is clearer – evidence increasingly suggests that hurricanes, storms and wildfires are becoming both more frequent and more severe than they once were. Time will tell if its the same story for Stratospheric Sudden Warming and tropical disturbances.

Evidence from these recent temperature extremes will certainly help researchers to understand this question. But if we do what we can to minimise the damaging impacts of climate change, we may never need to find out.

Peter Inness, Lecturer in Meteorology, University of Reading.

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

 
 
 
 

Here are my five favourite London council estates

The Dunboyne Road estate. Image: Steve Cadman/Wikimedia Commons.

The author is a Labour member of the London Assembly. In the name of impartiality, CityMetric would like to extend the invitation to write similar columns to representatives of other political parties.

From successful post-war efforts to move families out of slums and into modern homes, to today’s efforts to construct a new generation of social housing, there’s much to be celebrated in London’s precious council housing stock.

This year we celebrate the centenary of the Addison Act, which established a national building programme with government funding for the first time. So here – in no particular order – are my top five London estates:

1. Dunboyne Road

In 1965, the newly established London Borough of Camden was bold and radical when it came to public housing. Their architect’s department boasted 98 staff, led by Sydney Cook. The Grade II listed Dunboyne Road (pictured above) was Britain’s first high-density, low-rise estate. Designed in the late 1960s and completed in 1977, it was the first major work by architect Neave Brown.

Its concrete construction and geometric layout are eye-catchingly modernist, but the 71 flats and maisonettes fit neatly into their surroundings; a reimagining of the classic London street for the 1960s. Each has a private terrace and own entrance onto the central pedestrian walkway and communal gardens, with stepped levels and dual-aspect windows creating light throughout.

Neave Brown himself lived on the estate in the final years of his life remarking, “Who am I to say, but it’s beautiful”.

2. Lilington Gardens

Located just off Vauxhall Bridge Road, the fourteen blocks at Lilington Gardens were built between 1964 and 1972. Between three and eight storeys each, it was again a rejection of the tower blocks which dominated the era, showing that mid-rise housing could provide both beauty and density.

Image: Ewan Munro/Wikimedia Commons.

At a time when Westminster could be proud of the quality of its housing, John Darbourne and Geoffrey Darke won a competition to design the new estate. The result was something special, eschewing modernist forms for something more rugged and layered. The layout allows for secluded green spaces, while the red brick cladding echoes the neighbouring Victorian church of St James the Less. Like all good estates, it included a pub – the Grade II*-listed Pimlico Tram (now The Cask). It was included not as an afterthought, but an integral part of the estate’s design.

3. Ossulston Estate

By the early 1950s, the London County Council’s architect’s department was the biggest in the world, building housing on a huge scale in addition to showp iece projects such as the Southbank Centre.

Though their suburban estates – Downham in Bromley, and Becontree in Barking and Dagenham – were pioneering examples of low-rise of modernity in metroland, these efforts did not always suit the needs of poor city dwellers who weren’t able to move further out. The Ossulton Estate, however, built between 1927 and 1931 on the site of a Somerstown slum and located between Euston and St Pancras stations, did exactly that.

Image: Stephen McKay/Wikimedia Commons.

Chief architect George Topham Forrest’s work was inspired by visits to ‘Red’ Vienna and Ossulston bears distinct similarities to Karl Marx-Hof, which was constructed at the same time. While the roofs and windows have traditional elements, the overall aesthetic is a modernist classic. Like many estates in post-war years, it suffered from neglect and a lack of investment, but following a £6m improvement programme by Camden Council in 2004, the Ossulston is now back to its brilliant best.

4. Alton Estate

Roehampton’s Alton Estate, completed in 1959, was designed by a team led by Rosemary Stjernstedt – the first woman to serve as a senior public sector architect in Britain.

The two parts of the estate – East and West – are the crown jewels of British post-war council housing. Alton West was Le Corbusier in Albion: six ultra-modernist blocks modelled on the Unité d’habitation in Marseille, set among the landscape inherited from the Georgian Mount Clare house. Alton East was a softer, Scandinavian-inspired design of the “new Brutalists” in the LCC.

Image: Stevekeiretsu/Wikimedia Commons.

Rising above the trees to the north east of Richmond Park, the Alton Estate stands testament to the visionary idealism of post-war council housebuilding. On its completion, visitors flocked from across the globe, with American critic G.E. Kidder Smith calling it “probably the finest low-cost housing development in the world”.

Sadly, Alton West however is now at risk from ‘regeneration’ proposals which would see 288 existing homes lost. While council estates should not be fetishised, with investment, improvement and expansion encouraged, any change must be done sensitively and with residents’ backing. I hope that Wandsworth Council and Redrow will follow the mayor’s Good Practice for Estate Regeneration and hold a ballot before plans go ahead, and that if they do, they build on Rosemary Stjernstedt’s legacy.

5. King’s Crescent

When it comes to regeneration Hackney Council have taken an altogether different approach to Wandsworth.

Located on Green Lanes opposite the magnificent Clissold Park, King’s Crescent’s route to a successful and well-supported regeneration project hasn’t always been an easy one. The early 1970s estate was blighted by poor construction, navigability issues and an ill-fated partial demolition in 2000 which turned much of the landscape into hoardings and rubble. But thanks to a step-change in resident engagement and a transformation programme funded by Hackney Council, by 2023 it will be host to 765 new and refurbished homes.

Image: David Holt/Wikimedia Commons.

In the era of government-imposed cuts to local authority budgets, councils have to be pragmatic about funding choices and the new King’s Crescent does include homes for private sale. This is understandably a source of some consternation, but it’s also the source of funding which has made the regeneration possible. Hackney has ensured that more than 50 per cent of the new homes are genuinely affordable, with 97 brand new council homes for social rent.

The new developments have greatly enhanced the area, using both new build and renovation to stitch the estate better into its Victorian surroundings. Existing homes have been retrofitted with balconies, while disused garage space has been repurposed for modern flats. Hackney have clearly thought carefully about character and open spaces, as well as ceiling heights, windows and internal storage.

It is an exceptional project – one of a growing number of new schemes now being spearheaded by ambitious councils across the capital. In 2018-19, the Mayor of London funded the start of 1,916 new council homes – the highest figure since 1984-85.


…what about the Barbican?

On the fiftieth anniversary of its opening, it would be remiss not the mention the Barbican. It’s a brutalist masterpiece and a fantastic feat of post-war planning and design. The location and design are clearly outstanding, but it’s the bright and modern interiors which are truly to die for.

So why is it not on the list? Although it was built by the City of London Corporation, not one of the flats was ever available at a social rent. The properties were built to let at market rents to workers in the City, who later found themselves in the fortunate position of being able to snap them up under the Right to Buy – still the fate of far too many of London’s vital social homes.

Tom Copley is a Labour member of the London Assembly.