Minimum Space Standards are making the housing crisis worse

A tiny house. Image: Getty.

One of the most controversial housing and planning reforms in recent years has been the introduction of office-to-residential conversions under permitted development. And the most critiqued feature of this reform has been the relaxation of national minimum space standards for these conversions. If you’ve read an article about “rabbit hutch” flats in recent years, it’s probably been about one of these office-to-residential conversions.

However, minimum space standards have their critics. Vera Kichanova in a recent paper for the Adam Smith Institute argued that “micro-housing” is the right choice for some people. And the urban economist Alain Bertaud compares them to calorie requirements – trying to use them to address a housing shortage is like trying to “solve a famine” by passing a law that everyone must eat 2,000 calories a day, instead of simply producing more food.

After numerous changes and standards, the Nationally Described Space Standards are the current iteration. The smallest properties which can be built under these standards are 37m2 for those one-bedroom dwellings with a single bed space, and 50m2 for one-bedroom dwellings with a double bed space.

The Centre for Cities’ recent report, Making Room, highlights a problem with having a single national standard though – people consume very different amounts of space in different cities.

For example, while the average urban resident in England and Wales has 37 m2of space, Figure 1 shows residents of Blackpool have on average 45m2 and residents of Slough have 27m2. This is not necessarily a problem, as land is cheaper in Blackpool and residents of Slough can save money on their high housing costs by using their expensive space more efficiently. But it means a single national space standard has little impact in cities like Blackpool where space is plentiful, but in cities like Slough it forces homes to be built which are too large for residents to afford.

Average space per resident, 2018. Source: EPC, 2019; ONS, 2011; ONS, 2017.

However, looking at space per person just shows how people currently consume housing. It shows neither the size of new and existing houses, or whether space standards are affecting supply.

Almost all new homes are larger than the minimum standard

Using data from the Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) register to look at almost 10 million homes in cities in England and Wales, it has for the first time become possible to see how large existing and new homes actually are.

Some 4.6 per cent of new homes built since 2011 are smaller than the lowest minimum space standard (37 m2). But this is almost identical to the existing stock – 4.5 per cent of homes built before 2011 are less than 37 m2 too. Similarly, Making Room showed that new homes are on average larger than existing homes, as though the average existing urban home in England and Wales is 84.8 m2, the average new urban home is 87.1 m2. This suggests that stories of “rabbit-hutch Britain, land of the ever-shrinking home” are somewhat exaggerated.

Share of Homes Smaller than 37m2 in English and Welsh cities, 2011-19. Click to expand.

But this does vary by city. As Figure 2 shows, more than 10 per cent of new homes since 2011 were smaller than the national minimum space standard in Sheffield (11 per cent), Nottingham (11 per cent), Luton (15 per cent), Liverpool (16 per cent), Leicester (18 per cent), and Oxford (20 per cent). This might be the result of those office-to-residential conversions which are exempt from the minimum space standard in the most expensive cities, but they could also be the result of lots of new-build student accommodation, which are exempt from space standards.

By contrast, while 4 per cent of new homes in London since 2011 are smaller than the minimum space standard of 37m2, so are 7 per cent of existing homes. Given how expensive homes are in London, this suggests that there is an unmet demand in the capital for new small flats of less than 37m2 in which, for example single people could live by themselves without having share with housemates.

Space standards also mean many new houses are too big

Looking at the share of houses under 37m2 only shows how many houses are smaller than the lowest minimum space standard. In practice: there are many different standards depending on the intended occupants, including a 50 m2 space standard for one-bed properties for two people.

The impact of space standards on new supply can be shown more clearly by plotting how much space new and old houses have on a graph (a histogram). Using a similar idea to a recent paper from Nolan Grey and Salim Furth of the Mercatus Institute, the graph below shows how large new (since 2011) and existing houses are across all cities in England and Wales.

Space in new and existing dwellings in English and Welsh cities, 2011-19. Source: Domestic Energy Performance Certificate Register, 2019. Dwellings below 10 sqm and above 200m2 have been dropped for data quality reasons, and account for 0.3 per cent and 1.8 per cent of all housing stock in cities respectively.  Click to expand.

Theoretically, these graphs should show a completely smooth curve, with very few tiny and huge houses, and the size of most houses somewhere around the middle. We almost see that in the distribution of existing homes, aside from a particular concentration of houses at around 47m2.


But with the supply of new housing, we see a much less smooth pattern. Instead, there is bunching at particular points. This bunching implies that not enough smaller homes are being built, if we accept the theory above that people’s demand for space is “smooth”. For instance, somebody wanting to rent a new 40 m2 property would have to be much luckier or search much longer and harder than if they accepted a far more common new 50 m2 property in their city, which would either cost them more or require them to share with a housemate.

There appears to be bunching in the supply of new homes across cities at around 50, 70, and 85 m2. These each match the space standards at 50 m2 for one-bedroom flats for two people, 70 m2 for both two-bedroom houses for three people and two-bedroom flats for four people, and 85 m2 for three-bedroom houses for four people. Although the link with space standards cannot be proven, if they were changing developer behaviour then you would expect to see bunching at these points.

This bunching can be seen even more clearly if we focus again on London in Figure 4. Rather than a single curve, there is a twin peaks effect, with the supply of new homes concentrated at the 50 and the 70 m2 mark, which align with the space standards described above. There is much less supply of new homes between these two points than we might expect in theory and compared to London’s existing housing stock.

Space in new and existing dwellings in London, 2011-19. Source: Domestic Energy Performance Certificate Register, 2019. Dwellings below 10 sqm and above 200 sqm have been dropped for data quality reasons, and account for 0.3 per cent and 1.8 per cent of all housing stock in cities respectively.

The minimum space standards also appear to limit the supply of housing in London. Although 17 per cent of new homes in London are below the two-person, one-bedroom space standard of 50m2 (which differs from the one-person standard of 37 m2), so are 23 per cent of existing homes in the capital.

This means there is a particular undersupply of small flats in London below this 50 m2 standard, which would be particularly suitable for single adults to live on their own and be self-reliant. Instead, such adults are forced to live like students and share with housemates well into their thirties in crumbling old Edwardian houses, while still consuming a small amount of space per person due to London’s high land values.

Space standards make the housing crisis worse and should be abolished

Not only do space standards force people to share, they also reduce the supply of dwellings by reducing the total number of units. Imagine a new apartment building which has 5,000 m2 of residential space which is under a strict minimum space standard of 50 m2 per flat, or 100 one-bed flats. If, to do some simple arithmetic, that 5,000 m2 could be provided as 30m2 flats (without changing the space needed for utilities or access), the same building could provide over 166 new, more affordable homes for people.

Some might respond to this saying it is wrong for people to live in small houses. But is it? Philosophically, what right do others have to insist that people should buy more housing than they actually want? Houses smaller than the current minimum space standards are the right choice for some people, and they should be allowed to live how they want, even in 8-9 m2 houses.

Other people live in houses which are currently too small for them and their families. But they already know this, and forcing new homes to be larger than they can afford does not solve the problem these families face. The right approach to improve housing conditions for these families is through redistribution and the welfare state to boost their purchasing power, such as through increasing housing benefit as Shelter have called for.

If anything, building more small homes is part of how policy can help make larger family homes more affordable. If it is common for many single adults to be forced to share large houses with each other, they will easily be outbid two-earner adult households when renting. If more small homes can be built for singles and couples, this will reduce the pressure on larger homes and free them up for families.

Contrary to the popular view, the problem isn’t that new houses in Britain are too small – it’s that many are far too big. Space standards should be abolished or at least substantially relaxed, not just to help solve the housing crisis, but to allow people to choose to live independently and with dignity.

Anthony Breach is an economic analyst at the Centre for Cities, on whose blog this post first appeared.

 
 
 
 

The mayor of the West Midlands has released a map of his £15bn transport plan and it’s so, so beautiful

A detail from the new map. Image: Andy Street for West Midlands campaign.

There are mayoral elections coming up in several of England’’s biggest cities, in which the website you are reading is going to be a hugely, hugely influential player. No one gets elected in this town without the coveted CityMetric endorsement. 

That, at least, is the conclusion that Andy Street seems to have come to, based on the fact he’s just released a fantasy tube map of the West Midlands. During the Tory mayor’s first term, the Midlands Metro tram network has expanded very slightly – but let’s be honest here, three years is not enough to build a proper public transport network, even if you have the money or the power which England’s mayors do not. 

And so Street is teasing the voters with glimpes of the unattainable, in the form of a map of what the region could look like in 2040 if they’re sensible enough to re-elect him. The whole lot, he told a press conference on Tuesday, would cost £15bn. Here’s the map.

Click to expand.

So – what have we learned? Some thoughts.

This map shows several new metro lines

I’m not saying how many because, for reasons we’ll come to, it depends on how you define both “metro” and “new”.

The Midland line – from Birmingham up towards Wolverhampton – already exists, although this map shows it extended slightly on the far side of the latter towards the i54 business park. The Black Country line, better known as the Wednesbury to Brierley Hill Midland Metro extension, received funding last year; although why this map shows it with a branch running apparently non stop down the Midland line to Birmingham is not exactly clear.

The other lines are, I think, new. The MacArthur line (in red; named for trade unionist Mary MacArthur) is, I think, the proposed eastside metro extension, but extended westwards to Bearwood and beyond. The green Chamberlain line – named, one assumes, for Joseph Chamberlain, Birmingham mayor in the 1870s – from Minworth down to Longbridge isn’t something I recall seeing before. Neither is the Lee Woods line (in black, for mathematician Mary Lee Woods – this map does love its Marys, doesn’t it?) from Sutton Coldfield to Solihull.


Then there’s the Zepheniah line, named for local poet Benhamin Zehaniah, and running north-south from Walsall to the Maypole. As for  the Elizabeth line, a yellow loop around the city centre, it’s good that the authorities have resisted naming it “the Circle line” because a) that’ll annoy people when you inevitably decide it’d be better if it wasn’t a circle, and b) obviously what we need is more things named after the Queen.

At any rate: that’s a pretty extensive network. No idea if funding it is even remotely plausible, but dreaming big is good.

The plan involves 21 new railway stations, too

These include the planned re-opening of the Camp Hill line and the Walsall to Wolverhampton route, already under way; and a re-opened Sutton Park line, a freight route on the north side of the city through Aldridge. There’d be new stations in Birmingham and Coventry, too. Cool.

The Camp Hill line is the one via Kings Heath. The choice of orange for overground services is probably not a coincidence.

This is a fairly broad interpretation of “metro”

That purple line, heading east and then south from central Birmingham? That’s the proposed HS2 line to London. HS2 is many many things, but one it is definitely not is a part of the West Midlands metro network. It’s there, one assumes, to highlight Street’s support for investment in the region.

At the other end of the scale, the map also shows “automated pods” (in pink) linking Tile Hill station to the University of Warwick, and an “automated people mover” (in grey) linking Birmingham International to the HS2 Interchange and the NEC. Again: great to see a city experimenting, but it’s a bit Emirates Airline to put them on a tube map equivalent.

Coventry is a mess

The “Godiva line” – named for the 11th century Countess of Mercia, famous for riding naked through the streets of Coventry because of oppressive taxes something something – isn’t a line at all. Look at it.

No idea at all what’s going on there. Answers on a post-card.

Cars still matter

Lot of “park & ride” symbols shown on this map. This makes sense, if the plan is to get people in a car-based city off the road, but it still looks a bit odd to those of us used to London.

Street is still downplaying the whole Tory thing

His chosen colour, as with his 2017 campaign material, is green, not blue. Whatever could it mean?

Your move Labour. Best start by picking a candidate, I guess.

Jonn Elledge was the founding editor of CityMetric. He is on Twitter as @jonnelledge and on Facebook as JonnElledgeWrites.