From lintheads to high tech: the Sun Belt, and why America continues to head south

Who would live in a town like this? Phoenix, Arizona. Image: Getty.

The United States of America is often divided into different belts. The heavily religious South East holds the title of the “Bible Belt,” while the de-industrialising North East and Midwest, once known as the “Steel Belt,” is now designated as the “Rust Belt”. Whether it’s reflective of social trends, common economic features or similarities in climate, nearly every state in the union is part of some sort of belt.

But of all the belts that criss-cross the United Sates, one in particular seems to be in the midst of a resurgence: the Sun Belt.

Referring to the collection of states that compose the lower third of the US, stretching from North Carolina to southern California, the Sun Belt has seen some of the strongest population growth in the union. Between 2014 and 2015, the Sun Belt as a whole saw over 500,000 new residents arrive – most of its attributable to domestic migration. Of the ten fastest growing metro areas over the same period, all but two were located in the Sun Belt.

And so, many commentators have heralded the return of the Sun Belt. “With the economy healing,” notes Slate magazine, “Americans have started settling back into their old habits, moving off to warm suburbs in states like Florida and Texas.” CityLab has dubbed the Sun Belt 2015’s “population winner,” while the Brookings Institute has noted a “noticeable expansion of Sun Belt migration”.

AirCon and the Cold War

The idea that the Sun Belt composed a distinct region emerged initially in the late 1960s, courtesy of Republican Party strategist Kevin Phillips who, in The Emerging Republican Majority, noted the region’s growing electoral importance to his party. (Ironically, Republican strength in many Sun Belt states - North Carolina, New Mexico, Texas and Georgia -- is now weakening due to the population growth and demographic change, set-off by the Sun Belt’s boom.)

Between 1940 and 1980, the Sun Belt saw its population grow by just over 112 percent; by way of comparison the combined North East and Mid West saw their population grow by just 41 percent. The US’ economic and demographic centre of gravity has gradually shifted south.

A number of factors drew Americans to the Sun Belt region. First, the creation of the interstate highway system under President Eisenhower opened up once isolated southern regions, particularly in the South West. At the same time, the invention of air conditioning made both the arid desert climate of the South West and humid heat of the South East more tolerable.

Related to this was the defence boom, as the Cold War resulted in a flurry of federal spending on the defence and technology industries. Writing in the 1980s, the political consultant and writer Richard S. Morris noted that states in the North East, with 45 percent of the US population, received 28 percent of national defence spending; the Sun Belt, at the time holding 38 percent of the nation’s population received almost half. The Pentagon, he quipped, was “a five-sided building that faces south”. The clustering of highly skilled and educated personal in the defence sector – as well as the large grants given to research universities – also boosted the civilian sector, leading to growth in areas like the Dallas-Fort Worth “Silicon Prairie”.

While the South West has been viewed as an ideal destinations for Americans to migrate to, the South East, at least since the end of Civil War, has been a place from which people escaped. From African-Americans moving to Chicago and Detroit, to white inhabitants of Appalachia crossing north of the Ohio River, the South East has been a place of outward migration.

Yet the Sun Belt’s post-war rise has seen this trend starting to reverse: for the first time in roughly a century, a combination of federal defence spending and business friendly policies meant that many south eastern states have shared in the inward migration.

What’s in a name

The name itself may have helped: rebranding the southern third of the US as the Sun Belt, Bruce J. Schulman notes in From Cotton Belt to Sunbelt, “offered the land of Dixie a fresh identity”.

Bradley R. Rice expanded on this theme in the 1990s. ”The South was known to be hot and muggy,” he wrote in his contribution to Raymond A. Mohl’s Searching for the Sunbelt: Historical Perspectives on a Region. “The Sun Belt was portrayed as sunny, mild and mechanically cool. The South was unsophisticated and backward; the Sun Belt was seen as cosmopolitan and forward looking.”

This image revamp boosted the region’s appeal as a place for both people and business to relocate. Whereas the old South East was seen as a place of “sharecroppers and lintheads”, the new name made it sound dynamic and high tech. “Yankee executives might balk at moving to the South, but they might seek to locate in the Sun Belt”.

This renewed image is still drawing people in today. While jokes may persist about the backwardness of the Southern US, and images of the racial horrors of its past still linger in the popular imagination, in the past 60 years the demographic and economic weight of the US has steadily continued to shift south. From North Carolina’s “Research Triangle” to the sprawling cities of Texas’ or the population magnet that is Atlanta, Americans are flocking to the Sun Belt in search of more affordable living and better job prospects.

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How China's growing cities are adapting to pressures on housing and transport

Shenzhen, southern China's major financial centre. (Photo by Daniel Berehulak/Getty Images)

In the last 40 years, the world’s most populous country has urbanised at a rate unprecedented in human history. China now has over 100 cities with populations greater than a million people, easily overshadowing the combined total of such cities in North America and Europe. 

That means urban policy in China is of increasing relevance to planning professionals around the world, and for many in Western nations there’s a lot to learn about the big-picture trends happening there, especially as local and national governments grapple with the coronavirus crisis. 

Can Chinese policymakers fully incorporate the hundreds of millions of rural-to-urban migrants living semi-legally in China’s cities into the economic boom that has transformed the lives of so many of their fellow citizens? The air quality in many major cities is still extremely poor, and lung cancer and other respiratory ailments are a persistent threat to health. Relatedly, now that car ownership is normalised among the urban middle classes, where are they going to put all these newly minted private automobiles?

Yan Song is the director of the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill’s Program on Chinese Cities and a professor in the school’s celebrated urban planning department. She’s studied Chinese, American, and European cities for almost 20 years and I spoke with her about the issues above as well as changing attitudes towards cycling and displacement caused by urban renewal. This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

American cities face very different challenges depending on which part of the country they are in. The Rust Belt struggles with vacancy, depopulation, and loss of tax base. In coastal cities housing affordability is a huge problem. How do the challenges of Chinese cities vary by region?

Generally speaking, the cities that are richer, usually on the eastern coastal line, are facing different challenges than cities in the western "hinterland." The cities that are at a more advantaged stage, where socio-economic development is pretty good, those cities are pretty much aware of the sustainability issue. They're keen on addressing things like green cities.

But the biggest challenge they face is housing affordability. Cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou are trying to keep or attract young talent, but the housing prices are really, really high. The second challenge is equity. How do you provide equal, or at least fair, services to both the urban residents and the migrants who are living in the city, to alleviate some of the concerns around what the government is calling “social harmony?” 

Then the cities in the hinterland, typically they are resource economies. They are shrinking cities; they're trying to keep population. At the same time, they are addressing environmental issues, because they were overly relying on the natural endowments of their resources in the past decades, and now they're facing how to make the next stage of economic transition. That's the biggest divide in terms of regional challenges.

These urban centers rely on migrant workers for a lot of essential services, food preparation, driving, cleaning. But they live tenuous lives and don't have access to a lot of public services like education, health care, social insurance. Are Chinese policymakers trying to adopt a healthier relationship with this vast workforce?

The governments are making huge efforts in providing basic services to the migrants living in the city. They're relaxing restrictions for educational enrollment for migrants in the cities. In health care as well as the social security they are reforming the system to allow the free transfer of social benefits or credits across where they live and where they work [so they can be used in their rural hometown or the cities where they live and work]. 

In terms of health care, it's tough for the urban residents as well just because of the general shortage of the public health care system. So, it's tough for the urban residents and even tougher for the migrants. But the new policy agenda's strategists are aware of those disadvantages that urban migrants are facing in the cities and they're trying to fix the problem.

What about in terms of housing?

The rental market has been relaxed a lot in recent years to allow for more affordable accommodation of rural-to-urban migrants. Welfare housing, subsidised housing, unfortunately, skews to the urban residents. It's not opened up yet for the migrants. 

The rental market wasn't that active in previous years. But recently some policies allow for more flexible rental arrangements, allowing for shared rentals, making choices more available in the rental market. Before it was adopted, it’s prohibited to have, for example, three or more people sharing an apartment unit. Now that’s been relaxed in some cities, allowing for more migrant workers to share one unit to keep the rates down for them. You see a little bit more affordable rental units available in the market now.

I just read Thomas Campanella’s The Concrete Dragon, and he talks a lot about the scale of displacement in the 1990s and 2000s. Massive urban renewal projects where over 300,000 people in Beijing lost homes to Olympics-related development. Or Shanghai and Beijing each losing more homes in the ‘90s than were lost in all of America's urban renewal projects combined. It didn't sound like those displaced people had much of a voice in the political process. But that book was published in 2008.  How has policy changed since then, especially if people are more willing to engage in activism?

First of all, I want to make a justification for urban renewal in Chinese cities, which were developed mostly in the ‘50s and ‘60s. At the time, [in the 1990s] the conditions weren’t good and allowing for better standards of construction would inevitably have to displace some of the residents in older settlements. In my personal opinion, that wasn't something that could be done in an alternative way.  

Still, in the earlier days, the way of displacing people was really arbitrary, that's true. There wasn't much feedback gathered from the public or even from the people affected. In the name of the public interest, in the name of expanding a road, or expanding an urban center, that's just directed from the top down. 

Nowadays things are changing. The State Council realized they needed more inclusive urban development, they needed to have all the stakeholders heard in the process. In terms of how to process urban development, and sometimes displacement, the way that they are dealing with it now is more delicate and more inclusive.

Can you give me an example of what that looks like?

For example, [consider] hutong in Beijing, the alleyway houses, a typical lower-density [neighbourhood] that needs to be redeveloped. In the past, a notification was sent to the neighbours: “You need to be replaced. You need to be displaced, we need to develop.” That's it. 

Nowadays, they inform all different sorts of stakeholders. They could include artists' associations, nonprofits, grassroots organisations that represent the interests of the local residents. Then they [the citizens groups] could say what they really want to preserve. “This is what we think is really valuable” and that will be part of the inputs in the planning process. Some of the key elements could possibly be preserved. They  [the authorities] also talk about the social network, because they realized that when they displace people, the biggest loss is the social network that they have built in the original location. So, it's not only conserving some of the physical environment, but also trying to conserve some of the social network that people have.  

(STR/AFP via Getty Images)

Speaking of urban renewal, there was a big emphasis in the ‘90s and 2000s on highways. A lot of auto-oriented development in Beijing, following more of a Los Angeles than New York model. There's this quote I saw from Hong Kong architect Tao Ho, during the 1990s development of Pudong in Shanghai, warning against replicating “the tall buildings and car-oriented mentality of the West." 

In the ’90s or the first decade of the 21st century, most cities in China were still making mistakes. When I was a student, in the late '90s, I was translating for the American Planning Association. At the time, Beijing was still taking out the bike lanes and the planners from APA were telling them: “No, don't do that. Don't make that mistake." 

In the past decade, that's not occurring anymore. It has been happening [adding bike lanes] for a couple of years in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen. More attention has been given to improving the service quality of green transportation, upgrades to buses, the bike lane system, and so on. 

As China got richer, bikes became a symbol of poverty and, like you said, urban planners began removing bike lanes. Cities like Nanjing and Shanghai considered banning bikes from the central city entirely. 

For a long time, bike lanes were abandoned and the road surface was more devoted to the car. But in the past few years this has been changing, more road space has been given to bus rapid transit and to bike lanes. The attitude giving precedence to the private car is giving way.

Another thing they are trying to do is behavioural change, teaching younger generations that biking is cool, creating a new set of values that's more sustainable. In some major cities, you see educational campaigns, posters around the cities, [saying] bicycling is really cool. 

A recent paper you worked on looked at air quality in Chinese cities and found they are still struggling. The paper cited a study suggesting “that Chinese cities face the worst air quality across different cities around [the] world based on an extensive research of 175 countries.” Your paper recommends transit-oriented development and significant green outdoor space. Is that something you see policymakers adopting?

Yes, definitely, although with regional variations still. The eastern and southern cities are seeing more policies toward transit-oriented development. They are adapting smart technology too. For example, Hangzhou, which is the model of smart cities, the tech tycoon Alibaba installed sensors on every single traffic signal there. Then they were using technology to change the light, so when they detect a higher volume of traffic, they streamline the green lights and the red light wouldn't stop the cars, so there are less carbon emissions at the intersections. They showed that there was a reduction of up to 15% emissions. 

What about in terms of parking policy? How are policymakers trying to deal with the influx of cars in these cities? Are there parking minimums like in many American cities?

I was visiting Hangzhou in December, their “Smart City” headquarters there. They were trying to use technology to let people know where there's parking, so they don't have to drive around, which increases carbon emissions. In other cities, like Shenzhen, they were increasing the parking fee in the downtown by 50 yuan, or seven US dollars an hour. That's pretty high in the context of Chinese cities. It was 10 or 20 yuan before. So, just increasing the parking cost in the downtown area so that you discourage people from driving.

What are you working on now?

My new research is still on air quality. We had a really cool collaboration with a counterpart of Google Street Map. In China, that’s Baidu StreetMap. We asked the company to install another sensor on their cars when they take pictures. We added a sensor for air quality. So, we will know at a street level what are the current emissions by geolocation, by time. That will be really cool when we have all that data. 

Jake Blumgart is a staff writer for CityMetric.