How the pandemic upended crime patterns

A police officer wearing a face mask responds to a fire in downtown Los Angeles on April 21, 2020. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

An analysis of April 2020 crime and mobility data from eight US cities shows that while crime generally declined since the onset of pandemic-related restrictions, cities that curbed mobility the most experienced more pronounced changes in certain types of crimes.

The cities we chose to analyse – Baltimore, Chattanooga, Chicago, Detroit, Little Rock, Los Angeles, Philadelphia and St. Louis – represent a subset of US cities with relatively higher violent and property crime rates, as well as cities with relatively large populations. These cities also made their April 2020 and historical crime stats available online.

Violent Crime

In most of the cities we examined, violent crimes including homicide, rape, assault and robbery decreased more sharply than property crimes. Mobility trends data provided by Google suggest that in cities where widespread stay-at-home orders were in effect, there were fewer opportunities for these types of crimes to take place.

 

In Little Rock, Arkansas, however, residents were not staying at home as much as in other cities. Among the cities we looked at, Little Rock had the smallest reduction in visits to retail and recreation locations, the smallest decrease in public transit usage and the smallest change in travel to the workplace. 

Little Rock was the only city we examined located in a US state that did not impose a mandatory stay-at-home order.

Little Rock was also the only city we looked at where violent crimes increased in April 2020 when compared to April 2019. The city recorded a 95% increase in robberies and a 250% increase in homicides last month compared to the same month last year.

Chattanooga, Tennessee, had the second-lowest reduction in retail and recreation travel and public transit usage among the cities we examined. It also saw the second lowest reduction in assaults and robberies.

While official reports of sexual and other assaults were down across all of the cities we looked at, unofficial calls for help to abuse hotlines were up. The New York Times reported that during the first week of March, 383 calls were made to domestic violence hotlines in Chicago. By the end of April, weekly calls were up to 549.

This suggests that stay-at-home orders may in fact be increasing the number of assaults happening within the home, even if victims may not feel safe reporting the incidents to law enforcement.

Property Crime

Properties crimes decreased an average of 16% across the cities we examined. Property crimes include a variety of thefts, such as burglary (which usually entails breaking and entering), motor vehicle theft, and larceny, which is theft not of a vehicle and not involving the illegal entering of a structure.

Chattanooga residents, however, saw an 8% increase in property crime. Chattanooga was the only city we looked at that recorded more property crimes in April 2020 when compared to April 2019. Again, we note that Chattanooga had the second lowest reduction in retail, recreation and workplace travel among the eight cities. 


In Philadelphia, residents did a more thorough job staying at home in April. They reduced their travel to retail and recreation destinations by more than 50%, workplace travel by 54%, and use of public transit went down nearly 60%. 

Accordingly, Philadelphia saw its lowest five-year numbers in larcenies and burglaries. However, staying at home more did not protect residents from all types of property crime. Motor vehicle thefts soared in the city in April 2020, a 68% increase when compared to last April and easily the city’s highest count in the last five years.

Additionally, we took a closer look at two cities that differentiate crime statistics between residential and commercial burglaries and found that in both Philadelphia and St. Louis, residential burglaries were down and commercial burglaries were up.

City-by-city findings

While there were noticeable trends in crime rates in April of this year, each city experienced those changes a little differently. Here’s a look at what the data say about each city.

Baltimore

We looked at Baltimore because it had the fourth-worst violent crime rate among large US cities in 2019.

In April 2020, Baltimore saw declines in all types of crime. Both violent and property crimes were lower than they’d been in the past five years. 

 

The crime with the largest decline was sexual assault, down 68% from last April. 

Thefts, both vehicle and non-vehicle, were also down nearly 40%.

Homicides saw the least decline. There were 2 fewer people murdered in Baltimore this April than there were in April 2019.

Baltimore reduced travel to retail and recreation destinations by 42% and travel to grocery and pharmacies by 19% in April. Travel to workplaces declined by 49%. Usage of public transportation was down 41%.

Chattanooga

Chattanooga made it on our list because it had relatively high violent and property crimes rates for 2019. Chattanooga had the 19th worst violent crime rate in 2019 among large US cities, and the 11th worst property crime rate.

Chattanooga saw increases in April arsons, larcenies and motor vehicle thefts. Its motor vehicle thefts were higher this April than in any April in the last five years.

 

Burglary and all types of violent crimes decreased, though only burglaries decreased to levels below those found in the past five years.

Chattanooga reduced travel to retail and recreation destinations by 37% and travel to grocery and pharmacies by 9% in April. Travel to workplaces declined by 43%. Usage of public transportation was down 36%.

Chicago

Chicago made it onto our list because it has the third largest population of any US city.

In Chicago, incidents of arson and homicide have remained relatively stable, while all other types of crimes have fallen substantially and are at their lowest when compared to all Aprils since 2016.

 

Chicago saw its sharpest declines in larceny and sexual assault. There were nearly half as many of each crime in April 2020 as compared to 2019.

Chicago reduced travel to retail and recreation destinations by 48% and travel to grocery and pharmacies by 17% in April. Travel to workplaces declined by 53%. Usage of public transportation was down 60%.

Detroit

Detroit made it onto our list because it recorded the third-highest violent crime rate among large US cities in 2019. Complete 2016 crime data were not available for Detroit.

Detroit saw a decrease in all types of crime, with a nearly equal percent decline in both property and violent crimes. Violent crimes reduced by 24% and property crimes reduced 22% when compared to last April.

 

Detroit saw its lowest April crime numbers for all crimes except arson since 2017.

Detroit reduced travel to retail and recreation destinations by 51% and travel to grocery and pharmacies by 20% in April. Travel to workplaces declined by 58%. Usage of public transportation was down 57%.

Little Rock

Little Rock made it onto our list because it had relatively high violent and property crimes rates for 2019. Little Rock is ranked sixth worst in terms of violent crime and fifth worst for property crime among large US cities.

April motor vehicle thefts in Little Rock had been declining since 2017, but April 2020 saw a 12% increase when compared to April 2019 numbers.

 

Homicides were the highest they’d been in the past five Aprils, while burglaries and larcenies were the lowest.

Little Rock reduced travel to retail and recreation destinations by 31% and travel to grocery and pharmacies by 5% in April. Travel to workplaces declined by 38%. Usage of public transportation was down 32%.

Los Angeles

We looked at Los Angeles because it has the second largest population of any US city.

April violent crimes have been declining over the past five years in Los Angeles. 2020 saw the largest decline yet: there were 16% fewer violent crimes in LA in April 2020 as compared to April 2019.

 

Larceny and robbery are at five-year lows for April, down nearly 25% from last April. However, motor vehicle theft is at a five-year high, up 46%.

Los Angeles reduced travel to retail and recreation destinations by 52% and travel to grocery and pharmacies by 22% in April. Travel to workplaces declined by 49%. Usage of public transportation was down 53%.

Philadelphia

Philadelphia made it onto our list because it is the sixth largest US city.

While violent crime as a whole is down in Philadelphia, homicides are up. Philadelphia saw 41% fewer sexual assaults, 22% fewer robberies and 20% fewer assaults, but 18% more homicides this April as compared to April 2019.

 

Motor vehicle thefts are also up from last April. There were 68% more vehicles stolen in Philadelphia this April, the largest number in the last five years.

Philadelphia reduced travel to retail and recreation destinations by 51% and travel to grocery and pharmacies by 22% in April. Travel to workplaces declined by 54%. Usage of public transportation was down 59%.

St. Louis

St. Louis made it onto our list because it had high violent and property crimes rates for 2019. St. Louis recorded the second-worst violent crime rate and seventh-worst property crime rate among large US cities last year.

St. Louis averaged 119 April robberies over the past four years. In April 2020, it saw only 77 robberies. 

 

April arsons were the highest they’ve been in St. Louis since 2016, when the city also saw 27 arsons.

Motor vehicle thefts are the highest they’ve been in the past five years.

Robbery, burglary and assaults are the lowest they’ve been in the past five years.

St. Louis reduced travel to retail and recreation destinations by 47% and travel to grocery and pharmacies by 7% in April. Travel to workplaces declined by 50%. Usage of public transportation was down 36%.

Notes on the data used to produce this story: The FBI differentiates simple assault from aggravated assault. For the purposes of this story, we have combined simple and aggravated assaults. The FBI also differentiates rape from other sexual assaults. For the purposes of this story, we have combined all types of sexual assault. In many cities, a single incident may involve multiple crimes. Therefore, totals of all types of crimes in a single city may exceed the total count of unique crimes. Also, Google mobility data are measured on the county level. Mobility trends attributed to cities are derived from county-level numbers.

Alexandra Kanik is a data reporter at CityMetric. 

 
 
 
 

What's actually in the UK government’s bailout package for Transport for London?

Wood Green Underground station, north London. Image: Getty.

On 14 May, hours before London’s transport authority ran out of money, the British government agreed to a financial rescue package. Many details of that bailout – its size, the fact it was roughly two-thirds cash and one-third loan, many conditions attached – have been known about for weeks. 

But the information was filtered through spokespeople, because the exact terms of the deal had not been published. This was clearly a source of frustration for London’s mayor Sadiq Khan, who stood to take the political heat for some of the ensuing cuts (to free travel for the old or young, say), but had no way of backing up his contention that the British government made him do it.

That changed Tuesday when Transport for London published this month's board papers, which include a copy of the letter in which transport secretary Grant Shapps sets out the exact terms of the bailout deal. You can read the whole thing here, if you’re so minded, but here are the three big things revealed in the new disclosure.

Firstly, there’s some flexibility in the size of the deal. The bailout was reported to be worth £1.6 billion, significantly less than the £1.9 billion that TfL wanted. In his letter, Shapps spells it out: “To the extent that the actual funding shortfall is greater or lesser than £1.6bn then the amount of Extraordinary Grant and TfL borrowing will increase pro rata, up to a maximum of £1.9bn in aggregate or reduce pro rata accordingly”. 

To put that in English, London’s transport network will not be grinding to a halt because the government didn’t believe TfL about how much money it would need. Up to a point, the money will be available without further negotiations.

The second big takeaway from these board papers is that negotiations will be going on anyway. This bail out is meant to keep TfL rolling until 17 October; but because the agency gets around three-quarters of its revenues from fares, and because the pandemic means fares are likely to be depressed for the foreseeable future, it’s not clear what is meant to happen after that. Social distancing, the board papers note, means that the network will only be able to handle 13 to 20% of normal passenger numbers, even when every service is running.


Shapps’ letter doesn’t answer this question, but it does at least give a sense of when an answer may be forthcoming. It promises “an immediate and broad ranging government-led review of TfL’s future financial position and future financial structure”, which will publish detailed recommendations by the end of August. That will take in fares, operating efficiencies, capital expenditure, “the current fiscal devolution arrangements” – basically, everything. 

The third thing we leaned from that letter is that, to the first approximation, every change to London’s transport policy that is now being rushed through was an explicit condition of this deal. Segregated cycle lanes, pavement extensions and road closures? All in there. So are the suspension of free travel for people under 18, or free peak-hours travel for those over 60. So are increases in the level of the congestion charge.

Many of these changes may be unpopular, but we now know they are not being embraced by London’s mayor entirely on their own merit: They’re being pushed by the Department of Transport as a condition of receiving the bailout. No wonder Khan was miffed that the latter hadn’t been published.

Jonn Elledge was founding editor of CityMetric. He is on Twitter as @jonnelledge and on Facebook as JonnElledgeWrites.