Epidemiologist update: Fatality rates vary greatly by country

An update from GlobalData Epidemiologist Bahram Hassanpourfard:

The total confirmed cases of Covid-19 are 3,682,968 in the world while the case fatality rate stays at 7%, with the total deaths of 257,906. (Case fatality rate is defined as the proportion of confirmed Covid-19 cases that resulted in deaths.) The positive trend of daily recovered cases has stopped since 1 May. However, this reduction has not changed the total recovered rate significantly. The fall of daily confirmed cases continues in the US and Europe.

Among the top 10 most affected countries, the Covid-19 case fatality rate varies greatly. The UK has the highest rate at 15%. Russia has the lowest rate at around 1%. The case fatality rate in Russia may increase soon following the recent rise in confirmed cases. Russia, similar to Germany, has one of the highest number of hospital beds and nurses in the world, which indicates the ability of the country to control the pandemic. However, death reporting is not uniform across countries, and reporting accuracy also varies, therefore, reported deaths data may not accurately reflect the true burden of the outbreak. 

 
 
 
 

Sadiq Khan and Grant Shapps clash over free bus travel for under 18s

A London bus at Victoria station. Image: Getty.

The latest front in the row between Transport for London (TfL) and national government over how to fund the capital’s transport system: free bus travel for the under 18s.

Two weeks ago, you’ll recall, TfL came perilously close to running out of money and was forced to ask for a bail out. The government agreed, but offered less money, and with more strings attached, than the agency wanted. At present, there are a range of fare discounts – some up to 100% – available to children depending on their age and which service they’re using, provided they have the right Oyster card. One of the government’s strings, the mayor’s office says, was to end all free TfL travel for the under 18s, Oyster or no Oyster.

The Department for Transport’s line on all this is that this is about maximising capacity. Many working-age people need to use buses to get to their jobs: they’re more likely to be able to do that, while also social distancing, if those buses aren’t already full of teenagers riding for free. (DfT cited the same motivation for banning the use of the Freedom Pass, which provides free travel for the retired, at peak times.)

But in an open letter to transport secretary Grant Shapps, the mayor, Sadiq Khan, wrote that TfL believed that 30% of children who currently received free travel had a statutory entitlement to it, because they attend schools more than a certain distance from their homes. If TfL doesn’t fund this travel, London’s boroughs must, which apart from loading costs onto local government means replacing an administrative system that already exists with one that doesn’t. 

Some Labour staffers also smell Tory ideological objections to free things for young people at work. To quote Khan’s letter:

“It is abundantly clear that losing free travel would hit the poorest Londoners hardest at a time when finances are stretched more than ever... I want to make sure that families who might not have a choice but to use public transport are not further disadvantaged.”

London’s deputy mayor for transport, Heidi Alexander, is set to meet government officials next week to discuss all this. In the mean time, you can read Khan’s letter here.

UPDATE: The original version of this piece noted that the full agreement between the mayor and DfT remained mysteriously unpublished. Shortly after this story went live, the agreement appeared. Here it is.

Jonn Elledge was founding editor of CityMetric. He is on Twitter as @jonnelledge and on Facebook as JonnElledgeWrites.