Why do some cities create jobs, while others lose them?

Where is England's mystery boom town? Image: The Voice of Hassocks/Wikimedia Commons.

Which English city do you think has seen the biggest growth in its jobs market over last century or so? Is it London with its financial wizardry and exciting new tech industry? Manchester with its trams and its media? Cambridge with its science park?

We're being terrible unfair here, because you will quite literally never guess. (You really won’t.) Here’s the top 10:

Now Crawley, a mid-sized town in West Sussex, has two big factors working in its favour on this one. One is that it was tiny in 1911, with a population of just 5,000. It's now 20 times that size, thanks in large part to being a convenient 45 minute train ride from central London. And even though it’s mainly a dormitory town for the big city, when a town’s population grows by that much, its job market is inevitably going to grow by a fair bit, too.

The other advantage Crawley is sitting on is the presence of a rather big airport next door at Gatwick. Being next to an airport can do many horrible things to a town, but if considered from a purely employment perspective, they tend to be rather good.

You can spot the same phenomena at work in some of the other cities that make the top 10. Many of them have seen significant population growth over the last century; two more are conveniently placed for international airports.

But other factors seem to be in play, too. Being close to London clearly helps. So does the presence of a university, around which research-focused companies can cluster. There isn’t an obvious single factor.

Now consider the towns and cities which have going in the opposite direction. In 1911, Burnley, a market town in eastern Lancashire, had a population of more than 106,000. By 2011 it had fallen to 73,000, a fall of nearly a third.

But that's nothing compared to the collapse in the town's job numbers, which have fallen by half.

With this table it’s much, much easier to spot the pattern. Every one of these towns and cities is in the densely populated northern belt that stretches across England from the Mersey to the Humber. In 1911, this was Britain’s industrial heartland.  A century later, it wasn't anymore.


The importance of being southern

These tables both come from “A Century of Cities”, a report published early this month by the Centre for Cities think tank, which looks at a hundred years of economic data covering cities in England and Wales. For obvious reasons, the report is concerned in part with Britain’s north/south divide. But it also argues that we’ve been misdiagnosing that divide – or at least, that we’ve been coming up with the wrong treatment for it.

A century ago, the report says, the biggest driver of city growth was proximity to resources. That could mean coal, or other things you put into factories; then again, it might mean docks or transport links. Either way, it was fundamentally a matter of physical geography.

Now, though, the biggest driver of growth is proximity to “knowledge”: the cities that have thrived are those which have succeeded in attracting skilled workers and clusters of expertise. In other words, it's now human geography that drivers growth.

That means that the cause of the north/south divide is not the collapse in manufacturing in itself (after all, London lost plenty of manufacturing jobs, too). Rather, it’s the failure to develop or attract the skilled workforce you need to replace it with something else.

In other words, policies intended to revive the manufacturing sector, most recently chancellor George Osborne’s pledge to create “march of the makers”, are solving the wrong problem. Apart from anything else, modern manufacturing just isn’t as employment intensive as it once was.

Knowledge is power

It’s also overly simplistic to say that job growth has been an entirely southern affair. Here's a map of which cities have lost and gained jobs over the last century:

Click to expand

The south is clearly doing better; but in the north, the picture is mixed, rather than universally terrible.

There's a stronger correlation than the one between "southernness" and growth; that's the one between skills and growth. Here’s another map, showing the share of each city's jobs in private sector knowledge-intensive business (KIBs). The correlation with jobs growth is far from perfect, but it definitely seems to be there:

Click to expand

As to what drives the distribution of those exciting sounding KIBs jobs, one big factor is history. There is also a clear correlation between where knowledge-based jobs were in 1911, and where they were by 2013: if a city didn’t have many of them a century ago, it’s pretty unlikely to have that many of them now. 

That said, the impact history has isn't always a straightforward one, and an early industrial decline may work in a city’s favour when it comes to breaking into new types of industry. These graphs show the distribution of different types of jobs in Manchester over time:

The city’s manufacturing sector was already collapsing by the middle of the 20th century. But one side effect seems to have been that the number of knowledge-intensive jobs in the city began to grow early, too.

Now look at the same graphs for Birmingham:

Birmingham's industrial decline came later – but it’s been slower to build up its share of high-value service jobs, too.

So, how do you improve a struggling regional economy? The report makes three suggestions. You can improve the skill of the workforce. You can encourage “knowledge networks” – universities, research centres, clusters of business and so forth – to form, boosting the productivity of those workers.

Or you can deal with the scars left by industry – desolate factories and so on – and focus activity in the city centre to encourage that process. All of these suggestions should lead to more productive individuals, working in a more productive way.

But building an airport helps, too.

 
 
 
 

The best bike maps are made by volunteers

A cyclist in Vancouver, Canada. Image: Getty.

Not all bike routes are equal. Some places that are marked as bike routes on a map feel precarious when traversed on two wheels, including shoulders covered in debris and places where you can feel the wind from speeding cars.

North American cities are building more bicycling routes, by adding on-street painted lanes, physically separated cycle tracks, bicycle-only or multi-use paths and local street bikeways. These different kinds of routes appeal to different types of users, from the interested but concerned cyclist to the keen road rider.

Despite this boost in biking infrastructure, a city’s website may not immediately reflect the changes or it may lack important information that can make cycling safer or more enjoyable.

Web-based maps that allow people to add information about bike routes give riders detailed data about the type of route, what it might feel like to ride there (do you have to ride close to cars?) and where it can take them (for example, shopping, work or school).

They can also tell us which cities are the most bike-friendly.

Measuring bike routes

We set out to assemble a dataset of bike routes in Canadian cities using their open data websites. But we found it was nearly impossible to keep it up-to-date because cities are constantly changing and the data are shared using different standards.

A physically separated cycle track in Victoria, British Columbia. Image: E. Gatti (TeamInteract.ca).

The solution was OpenStreetMap, which creates and distributes free geographic data. Anyone can add data or make edits to OpenStreetMap, whether they want to build a better bike map or make a navigation app.

We looked at OpenStreetMap data for three large cities (Vancouver, Toronto and Montréal) and three mid-sized cities (Victoria, Kelowna and Halifax) in Canada.

Not only did the data in OpenStreetMap agree reasonably well with the cities’ open data: in many cases it was more up-to-date. OpenStreetMap tended to include more local details such as where painted bike lanes ended and often marked the short cuts connecting suburban streets.

How did OpenStreetMap measure up?

Our analysis focused on how well different types of routes were mapped. We measured cycle tracks (which physically separate bikes from motorised traffic), on-street painted bike lanes (which use painted lines to separate bikes from motorised traffic), bike paths (which are located away from streets) and local street bikeways (which include traffic-calming features and where bicycling is encouraged).

Painted bike lanes are the most common type of route and also the most consistently well mapped. This makes sense, because the definition of a painted bike lane may be clearest across time and place. There is also a straightforward way for volunteers to tag it on OpenStreetMap.

But it was harder for us to distinguish cycle tracks from on-street painted lanes or paths (bicycle-only or multi-use) using OpenStreetMap. Local street bikeways were challenging to identify because of the wide range of ways cities design these kinds of routes along residential roads. Some use traffic-calming measures such as curb extensions, traffic islands, speed humps and raised traffic crossings to slow vehicle traffic and encourage safety, or greenery, reduced speed limits and bike-friendly markings on signs and the road surface.

Correspondence between OpenStreetMap and Open Data for categories of bicycling infrastructure. Image: author provided.

Bicycle routes that are physically separated from motor vehicles and pedestrians, like cycle tracks and bicycle-only paths, have the greatest benefits for bicycling safety and encourage bike use.

Ease of access to bicycle routes is important to a city’s overall bicycle friendliness, but there are other important things to consider including the distance to destinations, the number, slope and length of hills, number of riders and how the transportation culture of a city can influence its safety.


Bike-friendly Canadian cities

Our results showed that Montréal has the greatest total distance in cycle tracks in Canada. As cities continue building more bicycle routes, researchers and planners can use OpenStreetMap to measure these changes on the ground.

The perfect bicycle map is up-to-date, covers the entire globe and gives riders an idea of the kinds of experiences to expect on different trails, roads and paths. People cycling in cities can contribute to the high-quality geographic data needed to understand changes in bicycle friendliness.

But OpenStreetMap is only as good as its contributions. The exciting thing is that anyone who wants a better bike map — city planners, researchers and everyday riders — can join the bike-mapping revolution by logging in to OpenStreetMap and mapping the features that are important to bicyclists.

The Conversation

Colin Ferster, Post-doctoral fellow, University of Victoria and Meghan Winters, Associate Professor, Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.