Since 1998, a major northern city has grown almost as fast as London – and it’s not the one you think

Oooh, a clue. Image: Getty.

The latest instalment of our series, in which we use the Centre for Cities’ data tools to crunch some of the numbers on Britain’s cities. 

One of the joys of this column is when I stumble onto something genuinely surprising. I’ve spent so long trying to come up with variations on the phrase “Well I never, it’s the north-south divide again!” that on those rare occasions when I find something weird, I am suffused with a genuine sense of delight.

Anyway, here’s the skinny. This week, I decided to look at how the economies of Britain’s major cities – London, Edinburgh and the 10 Core Cities – have grown over the last couple of decades. The Centre for Cities’ data on Gross Value Add - essentially, how much economic value is being created in each city, in pounds sterling – comes from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), and goes back to 1998.

Direct comparisons between the cities would make trends difficult to spot: the data isn’t per head, so simply by virtue of being so much bigger London would dwarf all the others and render trends impossible to see. To fix that, I’ve expressed the size of each city’s economy as a multiple of its 1998 value: when a city crosses the line labelled “2”, its economy is now double the size it was in 1998.

So, here’s the chart. You may wish to expand it to look at the key.

Click to expand.

The least surprising thing here is that London tops the charts, even on this relative growth measure. Since 1998, the capital has boomed, in terms of both economics and population (the two may be connected). By 2016, its economy was worth more than 2.3 times the amount it was worth just 18 years earlier. That’s equivalent – assuming I haven’t cocked up the maths – to an average annual growth rate of about 4.8 per cent, which is really not to be sniffed at.

The next two on the list probably aren’t that surprising either. Edinburgh is a rich city and a regional financial centre; Cardiff an increasingly important media hub. More importantly, both became government centres in 1999, as the new devolved Scottish and Welsh administrations moved in. Little wonder that this has brought economy benefits. Look at the left hand side of the graph, indeed, and you can see that Cardiff was, for a while, the fastest growing major city in Britain.


Beyond that, though, things start getting counter-intuitive. Because the next fastest growing major city economy in the years since 1998 turns out to be... Liverpool.

This doesn’t really fit the narrative, does it? When we talk about rebalancing England’s economy away from London, it tends to be Manchester that comes to mind – or, at a push, Birmingham. But the latter turns out to have been one of the slowest expanding city economies since 1998, with an average annual growth rate of just 3 per cent (only Nottingham has been slower, and then only slightly). Manchester fares better, but it’s still only mid-table, at 3.7 per cent.

The true Northern Powerhouse since 1998 has been Liverpool. With an average annual growth rate of 4.2 per cent, it’s one of only five of the 12 cities to have doubled the size of its economy since 1998, passing that mark by 2015. Between 1998 and 2009-10, in fact, it was the fastest growing major city in the UK. Then there was the slight matter of the crash and the austerity which followed, but even then it’s bounced back.

This data raises a number of questions to which I simply don’t have the answer. What drove Liverpool’s relatively stellar performance? And why did nobody notice it? By the same token, what went wrong in Birmingham? Have I just mucked up the data? If you have any thoughts, please do let me know.

I’m also aware that these numbers start at a faintly arbitrary point, and that if we started the clock in another year things might look different. So, next time in this slot, I’m going to look at the same data, but this time starting at the crash. Bet you can’t wait.

You can explore the full Centre for Cities dataset here.

Jonn Elledge is the editor of CityMetric. He is on Twitter as @jonnelledge and on Facebook as JonnElledgeWrites

Want more of this stuff? Follow CityMetric on Twitter or Facebook

 
 
 
 

Academics are mapping the legacy of slavery in Britain’s cities

A detail of the Legacies of British Slave-ownership map showing central Bristol. Image: LBS/UCL.

For 125 years, a statue of the 17th century slave-trader Edward Colston stood in the centre of Bristol, ostensibly to commemorate the philanthropy he’d used his blood money to fund. Then, on 7 June, Black Lives Matter protesters pulled it down and threw it into the harbour

The incident has served to shine a light on the benefits Bristol and other British cities reaped from the Atlantic slave trade. Grand houses and public buildings in London, Liverpool, Glasgow and beyond were also funded by the profits made from ferrying enslaved Africans across the ocean. But because the horrors of that trade happened elsewhere, the role it played in building modern Britain is not something we tend to discuss.

Now a team at University College London is trying to change that. The Legacies of British Slave-Ownership project is mapping every British address linked to a slave-owner. In all, its database contains 5,229 addresses, linked to 5,586 individuals (some addresses are linked to more than one slave owner; some slave owners had more than one home). 

The map is not exact. Streets have often been renumbered; for some individuals, only a city is known, not necessarily an address; and at time of writing, only around 60% of known addresses (3,294 out of 5,229) have been added to the map. But by showing how many addresses it has recorded in each area, it gives some sense of which bits of the UK benefited most from the slave trade; the blue pins, meanwhile, reflect individual addresses, which you can click for more details.

The map shows, for example, that although it’s Glasgow that’s been noisily grappling with this history of late, there were probably actually more slave owners in neighbouring Edinburgh, the centre of Scottish political and financial power.

Liverpool, as an Atlantic port, benefited far more from the trade than any other northern English city.

But the numbers were higher in Bristol and Bath; and much, much higher in and around London.

 

Other major UK cities – Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds, Newcastle – barely appear. Which is not to say they didn’t also benefit from the Triangular Trade (with its iron and weaponry industries, Professor David Dabydeen of Warwick University said in 2007, “Birmingham armed the slave trade”) – merely that they benefited in a less direct way.

The LBS map, researcher Rachel Lang explained via email, is “a never-ending task – we’re always adding new people to the database and finding out more about them”. Nonetheless, “The map shows broadly what we expected to find... We haven’t focused on specific areas of Britain so I think the addresses we’ve mapped so far are broadly representative.” 

The large number in London, she says, reflect its importance as a financial centre. Where more specific addresses are available, “you can see patterns that reflect the broader social geography”. The high numbers of slave-owners in Bloomsbury, for example, reflects merchants’ desire for property convenient to the City of London in the late 18th and early 19th centuries, when the district was being developed. Meanwhile, “there are widows and spinsters with slave property living in suburbs and outlying villages such as Chelsea and Hampstead. Country villas surround London.” 


“What we perhaps didn’t expect to see was that no areas are entirely without slave owners,” Lang adds. “They are everywhere from the Orkney Islands to Penzance. It also revealed clusters in unexpected places – around Inverness and Cromarty, for example, and the Isle of Wight.” No area of Britain was entirely free of links to the slave trade.

 You can explore the map here.

Jonn Elledge was founding editor of CityMetric. He is on Twitter as @jonnelledge and on Facebook as JonnElledgeWrites.

All images courtesy of LBS/UCL