How can compact cities keep house prices under control?

Southwark (left): surprisingly un-dense. Image: Getty.

Islington is the most densely populated are in the United Kingdom – yet wandering around the quiet streets of the north London borough, it is difficult to appreciate just how many people live there. Handsome terraces, elegant squares and a plethora of parks disguise the fact that there are nearly 14,000 people per km2.

By comparison, anyone passing through Southwark, on the other side of the Thames, is immediately aware of the crowds of people who live and work in the area. New glass towers loom over the major roads, while older council housing squat heavily on the back streets. Cars crawl through the famously congested roundabout and the air is heavy with pollution.

Yet Southwark has fewer than 10,000 residents per km2. This means it is significantly less dense than many of its more desirable northern neighbours: Kensington and Chelsea, Hackney, Camden, Tower Hamlets and, of course, Islington.

Measuring the benefits of urban density

Increasing the number of people living and working in an area can generate huge benefits for a city. Productivity rises as people spend less time and money travelling, and can share knowledge and ideas more freely. Businesses can reduce their production costs when they have access to a greater choice of specialised suppliers and workers. And it’s cheaper to provide services such as health care, waste collection and buses when more people can use them.

For the first time, researchers have estimated the monetary value of these benefits to urban residents. Their findings have just been published in the first working paper from the Coalition for Urban Transitions, a network of over twenty organisations committed to enhancing the economic, social and environmental performance of cities.

Drawing on more than 300 academic papers, Demystifying Compact Urban Growth: Evidence from 300 Studies Across the World demonstrates that increasing population density generates significant economic returns. The authors find that a 10 per cent increase in the number of people living and working in an area enhances productivity by approximately £54 per person per year. Better access to jobs is worth another £48, while improved access to services and amenities is valued at £38. Increased population density is also associated with better environmental outcomes, including preservation of green space and greater energy efficiency.

All other things being equal, this suggests that compact cities like Hong Kong, New York and Paris are likely to be richer and more sustainable than sprawling cities such as Houston or Melbourne.

Managing the risks of urban density

A more compact city is not a silver bullet: there are also risks associated with increasing population density. Careful urban planning is required to mitigate these risks, and deliver the potential economic and environmental benefits.

First, a 10 per cent increase in the number of people living and working in an area can lead to more congestion, with an estimated cost of £27 per person a year. Significant investment in public transport, cycling lanes and pedestrian walkways is essential to ensure that people can move around the city without cars.

Second, this increase in density increases housing costs by £186 per person per year. Such growth in house prices might benefit people who own their own homes or rent out property – but it will be a challenge for renters. As low-income households are more likely to rent, there is a risk that compact city policies will exacerbate inequality within cities.

Governments can avoid an increase in housing costs through policies to increase housing supply. A steady flow of new homes coming on to the market can have a downward effect on housing prices, which may outweigh the upward effect caused by increasing population density.


Lessons from London

In the 19th century, the city of London undertook a series of extraordinarily ambitious urban infrastructure projects that continue to shape the city. The world’s first underground railway was opened in 1863; today, the London Underground carries an average five million passengers per day.

In the 1860s, a vast network of sewers and drains were constructed to serve the three million people living in London. These pipes ended the waves of dysentery, typhoid and cholera that devastated the city, and continue to be used by over 8m Londoners. These far-sighted investments enabled people to live and work in close proximity to each other, helping to sustain London’s population and economic growth for over a century.

A walk through London today suggests that the city is now struggling to manage population density. Despite Crossrail, the proliferation of cycling lanes and iconic red buses on every street, many people continue to depend on cars. As a result, London has the worst air pollution in Western Europe. A normal day’s exposure is equivalent to smoking 15 cigarettes.

The problems extend from transport to housing. House prices in Islington have doubled in the last decade, a period when real wages have stagnated. The soaring property prices are the favourite topic of struggling renters or prospective buyers. The city needs to build over 50,000 homes a year to keep up with population growth, while redressing decades of neglect in the existing housing stock.  The failures of London’s housing policy were made all too clear with shocking fire that devastated Grenfell Tower and the lives of its residents.

Thousands of people move to London every year for the economic and social opportunities associated with this extraordinary city. Its dynamism is due in no small part to its high population density. However, the city’s strained transport system and spiralling house prices underscore the importance of strategic government intervention to manage the risks of crowding so many people into such a small area. Large-scale investment in public transport and housing are essential to ensure that compact cities are also liveable and affordable.

Sarah Colenbrander is a researcher with the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) and senior economist with the Coalition for Urban Transitions. The working paper, Demystifying Compact Urban Growth: Evidence from 300 Studies Across the World, was prepared for the Coalition for Urban Transitions by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

 
 
 
 

Here are the seven most extreme plants we’ve so far discovered

Artist's impression of Kepler-47. Image: NASA.

Scientists recently discovered the hottest planet ever found – with a surface temperature greater than some stars.

As the hunt for planets outside our own solar system continues, we have discovered many other worlds with extreme features. And the ongoing exploration of our own solar system has revealed some pretty weird contenders, too. Here are seven of the most extreme.

The hottest

How hot a planet gets depends primarily on how close it is to its host star – and on how hot that star burns. In our own solar system, Mercury is the closest planet to the sun at a mean distance of 57,910,000km. Temperatures on its dayside reach about 430°C, while the sun itself has a surface temperature of 5,500°C.

But stars more massive than the sun burn hotter. The star HD 195689 – also known as KELT-9 – is 2.5 times more massive than the sun and has a surface temperature of almost 10,000°C. Its planet, KELT-9b, is much closer to its host star than Mercury is to the sun.

Though we cannot measure the exact distance from afar, it circles its host star every 1.5 days (Mercury’s orbit takes 88 days). This results in a whopping 4300°C – which is hotter than many of the stars with a lower mass than our sun. The rocky planet Mercury would be a molten droplet of lava at this temperature. KELT-9b, however, is a Jupiter-type gas giant. It is shrivelling away as the molecules in its atmosphere are breaking down to their constituent atoms – and burning off.

The coldest

At a temperature of just 50 degrees above absolute zero – -223°C – OGLE-2005-BLG-390Lb snatches the title of the coldest planet. At about 5.5 times the Earth’s mass it is likely to be a rocky planet too. Though not too distant from its host star, at an orbit that would put it somewhere between Mars and Jupiter in our solar system, its host star is a low mass, cool star known as a red dwarf.

Freezing but Earth-like: ESO OGLE BLG Lb. Image: ESO/creative commons.

The planet is popularly referred to as Hoth in reference to an icy planet in the Star Wars franchise. Contrary to its fictional counterpart, however, it won’t be able to sustain much of an atmosphere (nor life, for that matter). This because most of its gases will be frozen solid – adding to the snow on the surface.

The biggest

If a planet can be as hot as a star, what then makes the difference between stars and planets? Stars are so much more massive than planets that they are ignited by fusion processes as a result of the huge gravitational forces in their cores. Common stars like our sun burn by fusing hydrogen into helium.

But there is a form of star called a brown dwarf, which are big enough to start some fusion processes but not large enough to sustain them. Planet DENIS-P J082303.1-491201 b with the equally unpronounceable alias 2MASS J08230313-4912012 b has 28.5 times the mass of Jupiter – making it the most massive planet listed in NASA’s exoplanet archive. It is so massive that it is debated whether it still is a planet (it would be a Jupiter-class gas giant) or whether it should actually be classified as a brown dwarf star. Ironically, its host star is a confirmed brown dwarf itself.

The smallest

Just slightly larger than our moon and smaller than Mercury, Kepler-37b is the smallest exoplanet yet discovered. A rocky world, it is closer to its host star than Mercury is to the sun. That means the planet is too hot to support liquid water and hence life on its surface.

The oldest

PSR B1620-26 b, at 12.7bn years, is the oldest known planet. A gas giant 2.5 times the mass of Jupiter it has been seemingly around forever. Our universe at 13.8bn years is only a billion years older.

Artist’s impression of the biggest planet known. Image: NASA and G. Bacon (STScI).

PSR B1620-26 b has two host stars rotating around each other – and it has outseen the lives of both. These are a neutron star and a white dwarf, which are what is left when a star has burned all its fuel and exploded in a supernova. However, as it formed so early in the universe’s history, it probably doesn’t have enough of the heavy elements such as carbon and oxygen (which formed later) needed for life to evolve.


The youngest

The planetary system V830 Tauri is only 2m years old. The host star has the same mass as our sun but twice the radius, which means it has not fully contracted into its final shape yet. The planet – a gas giant with three quarters the mass of Jupiter – is likewise probably still growing. That means it is acquiring more mass by frequently colliding with other planetary bodies like asteroids in its path – making it an unsafe place to be.

The worst weather

Because exoplanets are too far away for us to be able to observe any weather patterns we have to turn our eyes back to our solar system. If you have seen the giant swirling hurricanes photographed by the Juno spacecraft flying over Jupiter’s poles, the largest planet in our solar system is certainly a good contender.

However, the title goes to Venus. A planet the same size of Earth, it is shrouded in clouds of sulfuric acid.

The ConversationThe atmosphere moves around the planet much faster than the planet rotates, with winds reaching hurricane speeds of 360km/h. Double-eyed cyclones are sustained above each pole. Its atmosphere is almost 100 times denser than Earth’s and made up of over 95 per cent carbon dioxide.

The resulting greenhouse effect creates hellish temperatures of at least 462°C on the surface, which is actually hotter than Mercury. Though bone-dry and hostile to life, the heat may explain why Venus has fewer volcanoes than Earth.

Christian Schroeder is a lecturer in environmental science and planetary exploration at the University of Stirling.

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.