This infographic shows how Chinese cities are taking over the world economy

Where the magic happens. Image: CityMetric/Statista.

There are two long-term trends underway which are changing the shape of the global economy.

One, which will be obvious to anyone who reads CityMetric, is urbanisation: the way in which the population of the developing world are leaving the fields behind and packing themselves into ever swelling cities at an unprecedented rate.

The other, which will be obvious to anyone who ever reads the news, is that east is going to steal the west's lunch money.

This week’s infographic, from our mates at Statista, does a fine job of illustratimg both trends. It shows the 10 metropolitan areas which a report (PDF) from Oxford Economics, a consultancy, predicts will see the most economic growth over the next 30 years. As ever, the size of the bubble represents the size of the change.


You can instantly see quite how much of the growth is going to come from Asia – or, more specifically, from eastern China. No fewer than seven of the top 10 cities are in China, producing an estimated $3.8trn of growth between them. A fair few of these are names still unfamiliar in the west, too: Shenzhen, Chongqing, Suzhou.

That leaves space in the ranking for just two cities in the Americas and just one in Europe (still, nice to see London holding its own).

Things don't look better for the old world in the next bit of the league table, either: the next 10 cities on the list include another three apiece from the US and China, and one each from Japan (Tokyo), Brazil (Sao Paulo) and Indonesia (Jakarta).

Only one more European city makes the top 20 – and that's Istanbul, on the borders with the Middle East. Look to the top 50, and the only other European city that makes the list is Moscow.

Could be worse, though: at least Europe is already relatively rich. And GDP growth is at least partly a function of population growth: with a demographic crisis well underway on much of the continent, it’s no surprise that GDP growth in many European cities looks set to be limited. India, where urbanisation is well underway, doesn't have that excuse.

Prediction is hard of course, especially when it comes to the future: it's entirely possible that Oxford Economics' forecast is simply wrong. If not, though, well, you can expect to hear a lot more about Chongqing and Suzhou in the future.

 
 
 
 

This fun map allows you to see what a nuclear detonation would do to any city on Earth

A 1971 nuclear test at Mururoa atoll. Image: Getty.

In 1984, the BBC broadcast Threads, a documentary-style drama in which a young Sheffield couple rush to get married because of an unplanned pregnancy, but never quite get round to it because half way through the film the Soviets drop a nuclear bomb on Sheffield. Jimmy, we assume, is killed in the blast (he just disappears, never to be seen again); Ruth survives, but dies of old age 10 years later, while still in her early 30s, leaving her daughter to find for herself in a post-apocalyptic wasteland.

It’s horrifying. It’s so horrifying I’ve never seen the whole thing, even though it’s an incredibly good film which is freely available online, because I once watched the 10 minutes from the middle of the film which show the bomb actually going off and it genuinely gave me nightmares for a month.

In my mind, I suppose, I’d always imagined that being nuked would be a reasonably clean way to go – a bright light, a rushing noise and then whatever happened next wasn’t your problem. Threads taught me that maybe I had a rose-tinted view of nuclear holocaust.

Anyway. In the event you’d like to check what a nuke would do to the real Sheffield, the helpful NukeMap website has the answer.

It shows that dropping a bomb of the same size as the one the US used on Hiroshima in 1945 – a relatively diddly 15kt – would probably kill around 76,500 people:

Those within the central yellow and red circles would be likely to die instantly, due to fireball or air pressure. In the green circle, the radiation would kill at least half the population over a period of hours, days or weeks. In the grey, the thing most likely to kill you would be the collapse of your house, thanks to the air blast, while those in the outer, orange circle would most likely to get away with third degree burns.

Other than that, it’d be quite a nice day.

“Little boy”, the bomb dropped on Hiroshima, was tiny, by the standards of the bombs out there in the world today, of course – but don’t worry, because NukeMap lets you try bigger bombs on for size, too.

The largest bomb in the US arsenal at present is the B-83 which, weighing in at 1.2Mt, is about 80 times the size of Little Boy. Detonate that, and the map has to zoom out, quite a lot.

That’s an estimated 303,000 dead, around a quarter of the population of South Yorkshire. Another 400,000 are injured.

The biggest bomb of all in this fictional arsenal is the USSRS’s 100Mt Tsar Bomba, which was designed but never tested. (The smaller 50MT variety was tested in 1951.) Here’s what that would do:

Around 1.5m dead; 4.7m injured. Bloody hell.

We don’t have to stick to Sheffield, of course. Here’s what the same bomb would do to London:

(Near universal fatalities in zones 1 & 2. Widespread death as far as St Albans and Sevenoaks. Third degree burns in Brighton and Milton Keynes. Over 5.9m dead; another 6m injured.)

Everyone in this orange circle is definitely dead.

Or New York:

(More than 8m dead; another 6.7m injured. Fatalities effectively universal in Lower Manhattan, Downtown Brooklyn, Williamsburg, and Hoboken.)

Or, since it’s the biggest city in the world, Tokyo:

(Nearly 14m dead. Another 14.5m injured. By way of comparison, the estimated death toll of the Hiroshima bombing was somewhere between 90,000 and 146,000.)

I’m going to stop there. But if you’re feeling morbid, you can drop a bomb of any size on any area of earth, just to see what happens.


And whatever you do though: do not watch Threads. Just trust me on this.

Jonn Elledge is the editor of CityMetric. He is on Twitter as @jonnelledge and also has a Facebook page now for some reason. 

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